MEF Blog

August 2024

The Presidential election is in full swing, and the candidates are aggressively promoting their policies and differences to win your vote. One of the many topics both candidates are addressing is housing, in response to the major increase in home prices since 2020 (and longer for regions like the Bay Area). A second, related issue is the recent settlement by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) regarding commissions paid to Buyer’s agents, which Plaintiff’s cited as inflating the cost of homes. From MEF’s perspective, the issue in Marin County (and the Bay Area) has always been one of supply and demand, which ultimately manifests itself in the price of housing, which we know to be high. The high cost limits access, and that is among the main reasons housing is top of mind in communities, because the issue can turn from an economic one (supply and demand) to a social one (who gets to own a home?). Now that housing and access to the “American Dream” is an election issue, it is fair to wonder whether the national attention might make any difference locally. As it relates to the NAR settlement, it remains to be seen if there will be any material impact on prices. It’s possible since Sellers were responsible for funding the Buyer commission (via paying the Selling Agent both commissions), that any savings will stay in the pocket of the Seller. It’s also possible that Buyers end up spending more money because they must pay for services related to the transaction (Agent or otherwise). And then there are the potential unintended consequences that always emerge when a longstanding business norm is disrupted. In summary, despite the perception that home buyers got a win in the NAR settlement, we do not yet know if the change will result in any better access to homes. The Presidential candidates are offering very different approaches to increasing access, all of which remain hypothetical at this stage and could require various levels of approval, from Congress on down to your local jurisdiction. However, both candidates agree that increasing supply is the key approach. Former President Donald Trump has suggested that the Federal government should make federal land available to developers to build more homes including affordable units, and that the broader effort to tackle inflation, leading to lower interest rates, will spillover to lower mortgage costs. Vice President Kamala Harris has provided a bit more detail in how she would tackle the issue, including a promise to increase supply of homes by 3 million units, largely by reducing the regulatory burdens that slow permitting and construction, and to increase home ownership opportunities through a $25,000 subsidy for first-time homebuyers. On the surface, it is difficult to evaluate the local impact of either plan. For example, even when mortgage costs were extremely low (sub 3%), housing remained expensive and scarce in Marin County. Further, we do not have large swaths of federal land that could be “sold” to a developer without major controversy among Marin residents. A subsidy of $25,000 on a home selling for $1.5 million would have limited, if any, impact and that specific proposal has been called out by economists as likely perversely raising home prices. Where possible impact could be felt is on the desire to loosen regulations that would facilitate more building, but the issue of local control has been, and remains, controversial in Marin County. Just see the response to the State of California’s Regional Housing Needs Allocation. In a bizarre way, the national focus on housing elicits a “welcome to our world” response in Marin, but it’s also possible that such focus might unlock new ways to increase access. Something to watch.

Mike Blakeley, CEO Marin Economic Forum

July 2024

Talk to any Marin-based, non-profit serving our low to moderate income (LMI) population and they will cite several difficult life challenges that their clients face. These range from the obvious like homelessness, mental illness, unemployment, and others that make some of our fellow residents vulnerable. One of the less visible, but very impactful, challenges is poor financial literacy, which can lead residents to make poor decisions with their limited resources. Financial literacy can best be described as “the ability to understand and use financial skills to make informed decisions about money.” (Investopedia, 2024). Under that definition, it’s more than just our LMI population that might suffer from poor financial literacy, but it may affect this population more acutely. For example, Americans household debt level, which includes credit cards, auto loans, student loans, and mortgages primarily, hit a new record high in June 2024. We do not argue here that debt is a bad thing per se, but we know a greater portion of disposable income among LMI populations goes toward debt service, leaving fewer funds available for other essential needs. For example, one study from the St. Louis Federal Reserve showed that the credit card balances among the lowest income populations in the U.S. are as much as 85% of monthly income. When the Marin Economic Forum held stakeholder focus groups during the development of the “Marin County Economic Vitality Strategic Plan (EVSP)”, the issue of financial well-being and lack of financial literacy training in schools frequently arose as an issue for residents. A greater number of people of color cited this issue specifically in focus groups comprised of residents from Marin City and San Rafael. Accordingly, the EVSP includes an action item to increase access to financial literacy training in Marin, and in languages beyond English. To be clear, there are resources available to our lower income populations, both public and private resources. The Marin County Office of Education hosts several online resources intended to help students in the broader career pursuits. But this requires individuals to seek out and self-instruct, which can be a barrier. Another example is “Sparkpoint”, delivered by Community Action Marin, that provides personal coaching to individuals on such important items as creating budgets, managing debt loads, or learning how to properly file tax returns. There is a consensus within the non-profit community that their clients benefit from the individual attention that their programs provide, otherwise the resources available may not be utilized or understood, as finances can be challenging to understand and manage. Anyone who has found themselves at one time or another under financial strain can probably trace that challenge back to a poor decision or lack of awareness, such as overspending, not understanding the impact of interest rates on debt, or how to save for emergencies. However, these types of issues are more difficult to overcome if you do not understand finance, don’t speak English, or have limited resources to begin with. The Public Policy Institute of California and the James Irvine Foundation did a survey in 2021 asking California residents if they could handle a $1,000 emergency. Almost 30% of respondents with incomes of $40,000 and below said it would be “impossible” or “very difficult.” These respondents and people in the same situation may have had some bad luck along the way but it is a good bet they may not have had the benefit of learning about financial literacy. If we want our fellow Marin residents to enjoy some sense of economic security, financial literacy must be integrated in other training, such as job and life skills.

Mike Blakeley, CEO Marin Economic Forum

June 2024

Recently, I heard about the Governor of New York’s decision to indefinitely delay implementation of a plan to charge motorists $15 to enter the core of Manhattan, just weeks before the “congestion pricing” system was set to launch. The plan was originally conceived in an effort to raise funding for public transportation while contributing to the State’s air pollution reduction goals. As expected, critics pointed to a backtracking on environmental goals. Not to be outdone, the State of Virginia, which had previously adopted California’s vehicle emissions standards, including thresholds for the sales of electric vehicles, stated they would no longer follow those standards, opting for less restrictive federal standards. The Virginia governor said it was unfair to tell people what kind of car they should buy, especially with the cost of EV’s being higher than gas-powered vehicles. We’ve recently experienced similar actions from public entities locally as it relates to the ban on natural gas hookups in new residential and commercial construction. The City of Berkeley, who pioneered the legislation by being the first city to adopt such a ban, was also the first city to repeal its ban. The city faced extreme opposition, including from the California Restaurant Association, due to the likelihood of cost increases. Recently, Sunnyvale, Cupertino, Contra Costa County, San Mateo County and San Luis Obispo suspended their gas bans. Here in Marin, the San Rafael City Council also voted to repeal its ban, put in place in 2022. Word is Corte Madera, San Anselmo, and Fairfax are weighing their options to follow suit. These actions all took place in the past couple of months, prompting the questions of why now and what went wrong? Let’s start with the “why now?”. It’s no secret that the last few years have put the financial squeeze on consumers via price inflation and that cost of living has become one of the hot button political issues in this election year. In the case of New York and Virginia, these decisions were made by governors, Democrat and Republican respectively, and both leaders cited the issue of cost burdens to their constituents, namely middle-class residents who would find them onerous and costly. Both decisions are also a commentary on how environmental goals pursued by the state may not be acceptable to the public, i.e. a cost that is too high. High cost was also cited by the California Restaurant Association in their suit against the City of Berkeley’s ban, although the decision by the 9th Circuit Court in April 2023 said local policies can’t limit energy use for products regulated through the federal Energy Policy and Conservation Act, which includes appliances like gas stoves. The threat of costly legal action might just be more than local jurisdictions are willing to put up with for a move that was seen mostly to support climate action goals. The decision does allow cities to try to discourage use of natural gas (vs. electrification), but it’s not yet clear where the public lies on this issue. As far as the question of “what went wrong?”, well, aside from the legal challenges these policies resulted in, there may have been an underestimation of the appetite for citizens to support climate-environmental policies if they hit too close to the pocketbook. Make no mistake, a place like Marin County is a leader in the environmental space and most residents would accept higher costs to meet climate goals and environmental initiatives. But we need to be aware that businesses and consumers will weigh those policies against more practical variables, such as convenience and cost. I know many Marin County residents would say addressing the climate is “priceless” but that is not bearing out locally or nationally, at least not recently.

Mike Blakeley, CEO Marin Economic Forum

February 2024

Recently, the Marin Economic Forum held our annual Forecasting the Future event with a focus on business attraction. Most people associate business attraction as the act of a public entity proactively recruiting companies to locate in their jurisdiction. Those entities may have different interests for businesses to locate there, such as job creation, infrastructure development, or tax revenues. The most visible example of this is when a state like Texas successfully poached San Francisco-based companies, offering incentives such as tax credits and lower costs. The reason we chose to focus on business attraction is because, like other regions, Marin County has needs that can be filled by more businesses locating here. Let me present three areas where more growth in businesses will help the county: 1. Better jobs: Marin has among the highest educated and skilled resident population in the country. Over 65% of our residents hold bachelor’s degrees or higher. However, only 35% of the occupations in the county require greater than a high school education. This means many residents must seek employment outside of Marin because we do not have enough middle-skill and high-skill jobs to meet residents demands.   2. More economic growth: Most businesses currently operating in Marin serve the local market. That is good from the perspective of available goods and services for locals. However, being dependent on local consumers means limited growth opportunities because we are dependent on a smaller market.   3. Greater opportunity for youth: Young people in Marin don’t have robust opportunities for employment post-high school, save for some of the more active local sectors like construction. Most entry level jobs are in the services sector with limited opportunities for mobility. In addition, young college graduates have a shallow pool of professional services firms in Marin where they might secure employment with wages for a comfortable lifestyle. What is it that Marin has to offer? Plenty. For starters, there is the high-skilled workforce that already lives in Marin. Second, from a commercial real estate perspective, office space in Marin is not only less expensive than peer counties, but we also have the types of office space that meets modern demands like outdoor office amenities, free parking, and lifestyle features in the towns and cities where offices are located (think of that after-work dinner with colleagues or, even better, an after-work hike!). Depending on the sector you operate, there may be other advantages to locating here where there is access to water for prototyping, lab space for R&D, or a central location if you are supplying markets to the north, east or south Bay Area. How can we undertake business attraction in Marin? The answer is a bit complicated owing to our multiple jurisdictions and the resources normally associated with the task. However, readers should note that some of Marin’s cities, like San Rafael and Sausalito, are proactively focusing on the opportunity to attract new companies, with economic development resources in place to manage any activities should they decide to do so. A big part of the activity is promoting and selling your region to the broader public and that is a place MEF is starting to focus. As our Chief Economist, Dr. Rob Eyler, mentioned at our Forecasting the Future event, “Marin has the muscle, it’s a matter of whether we flex it.”

SAVE THE DATE: MEF Economic Briefing
March 11 – 9am 

Come join MEF’s first Briefing of 2024 on Monday, March 11 at 9:00 am. Mike Blakeley and Dr. Robert Eyler will present 2024 early data and prospects. We look forward to you joining us.

We welcome your questions in advance of the program. Please submit your question to admin@marineconomicforum.org.
 
You are invited to a Zoom webinar.
When: Mar 11, 2024 09:00 AM Pacific Time (US and Canada)
Topic: MEF Econ Briefing
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Mike Blakeley, CEO
Marin Economic Forum

December 2023

MEF’s Year in Review As we get ready to turn the calendar to 2024, we wanted to share some of the most significant activities and events led by the Marin Economic Forum (MEF) during 2023: Putting a Spotlight on “Economic Equity”: In late 2022 the Marin County Board of Supervisors unanimously adopted the “Marin County Economic Vitality Strategic Plan” (“EVSP”) created by MEF. In early 2023, MEF met with community partners to pursue activities under Initiative #4 of the EVSP: “Create Pathways to Economic Mobility for Marin Residents.” MEF met with the County of Marin to discuss indicators that could be adopted by county agencies to track the economic progress of residents, via some of the key programs the county is implementing such as the “Race Equity Action Plan (REAP).” MEF also dedicated its annual conference, “Forecasting the Future”, to the issue of economic equity. The conference included presentations of programs and activities led by three of Marin’s foremost organizations supporting economic equity in Marin: the Marin Community Foundation through their “MarinMOMentum” project, Community Action Marin and the economic justice program, and a presentation from the County Director of Equity Jamillah Jordan on the REAP program. Supporting the Permit Process throughout the County: MEF is partnered with the Marin Builders Association (MBA) for the “Permit Improvement Program” (PIP). The PIP is an analysis of processes and customer feedback for municipal permit offices with a goal of improving efficiency and quality of services. During 2023, the County of Marin approved the second phase of their PIP produced by MBA and MEF, assuring residents In county unincorporated that improvements are occurring. The City of San Rafael also completed Phase II of their effort during the year. Ensuring Continuity of the County and the MEF Board of Directors: In 2023, former Marin County Supervisors Judy Arnold and Damon Connolly left the MEF Board for other pursuits. Ms. Arnold was a founding member of the Marin Economic Commission, which later spun out to become MEF. Under her leadership, MEF not only grew in stature and supporters, but she was a champion voice in the county for economic vitality. Her colleague on the Board of Supervisors, Damon Connolly, was also a staunch supporter of the Marin economy and is now representing Marin County in the State Assembly. Following their resignations from the Board, two new Marin County Supervisors, Mary Sackett and Eric Lucan, were unanimously approved to join the MEF Board of Directors, ensuring the important relationship between the county and MEF continues. We welcome the additions of Supervisors Sackett and Lucan to the Board. New Partner Program and Issue Platform: The MEF Board of Directors also approved two new programs that are intended to allow the community to have deeper engagement into MEF’s activities. The first approval was for a new “Partner” program, that allows community organizations to join MEF and participate in several activities, from committees to networking opportunities with Marin’s leaders. The second program is an “Issue Platform” whereby the MEF Partners and Board will select issues for the organization to focus during the calendar year. In 2024, MEF will focus on “workforce development” and “business attraction.” We welcome community Partner candidates from all across Marin and in every sector. Happy Holidays from MEF!   We have enjoyed working with the Marin community this year and can’t wait for 2024! Please see some of our exciting upcoming events below. Marin Economic Briefing – Jan 24   Join MEF Chief Economist, Rob Eyler, for the first economic briefing of 2024 on January 24th at 9am. Registration details forthcoming.   ___________________________________  Forecasting the Future – Feb 7   MEF’s signature annual event, Forecasting the Future, will be on February 7th at the College of Marin Novato campus. This year the event will focus on “business attraction” and feature a line up of excellent speakers talking about doing business in Marin County. Register here for tickets or sponsorship opportunities.

Mike Blakeley, CEO
Marin Economic Forum

October 2023

The Pt. Reyes Light recently published an article about West Marin restaurants need to cut hours of operation due to lack of staff, whether it be a part-time barista or a highly skilled, well-paid chef. The situation is doubly frustrating for these restaurants as tourism activity is surpassing pre-pandemic levels. One of the reasons for their struggle is a small labor force in West Marin due in part to a shortage of affordable housing. Yet the housing issue has persisted for a long time, and it will take a long time to resolve. Without a strategy to expand the local labor force or entice non-locals to commute, the business sector in West Marin could shrink. That would leave precious tax revenues for public services also shrinking. In a way, what is happening in West Marin is a microcosm for all of Marin. Since the pandemic, the Marin labor force has remained about 5% smaller, with retirements, out-migration and population decline all playing some part. In some cases, raising wages or paying sign-on bonuses may help temporarily, but broader labor force challenges need to be addressed through a comprehensive and collaborative approach led by government, employers and the business community, education providers, and workforce development officials. There are some examples of how this is occurring. The Committee for Economic Development (a national group), has been promoting a set of recommendations for employers and policymakers to address the labor shortage, largely by engaging prospective employees from groups that may have been overlooked in the past, including older adults, formerly incarcerated individuals, recent high school graduates, and people with disabilities. Their recommendations largely put the burden on employers, but the public sector can help with incentives as can philanthropy and the non-profit sector. The labor shortage is heavily felt in the construction industry, which has experienced high demand and job openings since the economic recovery of the pandemic. A new federally funded program between the Department of Labor and the National League of Cities aims to address the shortage of over 1 million construction workers by identifying and training workers for the industry, with an emphasis on women and youth. The program will start in 12 cities across the U.S. as a pilot, with a goal to add more. Locally, a great model of collaboration is the Marin Builders Association North Bay Construction Corps., which provides high school students the training to secure a job in the construction trades immediately after graduating. This program creates a pipeline of talent while offering individuals good quality jobs. Another program that provides training on auto repair and other skilled occupations is underway at Terra Linda High School, supported by the Marin County Office of Education and the Charlie and Barbara Goodman Foundation. College of Marin regularly partners with private employers to do customized training, albeit in small volumes but scalable. These programs are good examples of how public-private collaboration can meet demand. Marin’s challenge is to take these successful models and replicate them across the county, while also focusing equally on sectors like IT and life sciences that have middle and high-wage occupations. One of the places to start would be in West Marin. In our effort to responsibly share data and information with our external audiences, we pay careful attention to data and other privacy rights to ensure compliance. In some cases, this means we can cite a source but we are unable to include access to the source itself as a link, attachment or otherwise, and it also requires careful attention to the reuse of that data for our own purposes.

Mike Blakeley, CEO
Marin Economic Forum

September 2023

Recent articles on the U.S. economy (including those from the Marin Economic Forum) have discussed the growing concern over a labor shortage that has persisted since the pandemic. Marin’s own labor force is down over 5% (about 6,500 workers), a figure that has remained since 2020. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports there were over 8.8 million jobs open in August 2023 across the U.S. and anyone who has strolled one of Marin’s downtowns has noticed a “We’re Hiring!” sign in windows. it seems to be a problem that won’t go away, and here is why that is a concern for the Marin economy: Stifled Economic Growth: A prolonged labor shortage hinders economic growth by restricting the potential output of businesses. Economic growth in Marin is not about new buildings and more traffic – – it is about having a tax base of personal and business incomes that fund critical public services. The alternative to economic growth is higher costs or taxes to offset losses of traditional revenue sources. That would be even harder on our low-income residents.   Inflationary Pressure: The labor shortage can lead to wage inflation as employers compete for a limited pool of talent. While an argument for higher wages in the costly Bay Area can be made, many of our small, locally serving businesses are price sensitive, meaning they cannot absorb higher costs without passing on to their customers or limiting operations. This is already occurring in local food and energy sectors as well as some basic healthcare services like the dentist.   Skill Mismatch: As the labor market tightens, employers may struggle to find workers with the specific skills they need. This can lead to a skills gap, where available jobs and the skills of the workforce do not align. In Marin, we have many high-skilled residents that must seek employment elsewhere and a lot of demand for lower skilled jobs, which we cannot fill with the existing labor force. High skilled occupations in the trades sector do not have sufficient talent pipelines to meet demand, at a time where cities have pledged to build more homes. All three issues are pain points for Marin residents, whether they be business owners or employees. But solving these issues is difficult because Marin has unique challenges that exacerbate our own labor shortage issue, especially our high cost of living. These unique challenges do not allow us to take the most traditional approaches to labor shortages such as:   Investing in Training: Regions that successfully combat labor shortages invest in training programs that align with the needs of local industries. However, in Marin our largest industry sectors are those with locally serving businesses, like foodservice, real estate, and retail sales, which are not attractive investments for training entities given the relatively lower wages paid. That makes it difficult to build talent pipelines to feed those industries.   Attract and Retain Talent: Regions compete for talent by creating vibrant and livable communities and having a robust ecosystem of employers. Marin’s quality of life is a major draw to live or work here, but we do not possess those deep pools of firms that can motivate a young professional to locate here. With just a few companies in sectors like life science or technology, it can be a risk for an employee to relocate to Marin without multiple employer options.   Immigration: Labor shortages can be mitigated by providing a legal pathway for skilled immigrants to work in the U.S. For example, Silicon Valley has benefited from a diverse and highly skilled immigrant workforce that has played a crucial role in its growth. The Bay Area has long been a magnet for immigrants and our region’s economic growth will depend on this population for the foreseeable future.  Since these traditional approaches are not widely used (or available) in Marin, we are going to have to find other methods to grow our labor force, or suffer a decline in productivity, economic growth and potentially those very important revenues for public services. Some of the approaches that should be considered include business attraction that encourages firms to locate here, investment into local entrepreneurs that can grow businesses, especially those that utilize remote or distributed workforces or that require high-skilled and well compensated employees, and deeper partnerships between public sector, academia, and private sector to determine and build talent pipelines that respond to future growth opportunities. Our challenges are unique and require crowdsourced solutions. MEF is ready to convene leaders in Marin to collaborate in finding solutions to our labor force challenges. If you want to be part of the solution, I hope you will reach out and signal your interest (mblakeley@marineconomicforum.org). In our effort to responsibly share data and information with our external audiences, we pay careful attention to data and other privacy rights to ensure compliance. In some cases, this means we can cite a source but we are unable to include access to the source itself as a link, attachment or otherwise, and it also requires careful attention to the reuse of that data for our own purposes.

Mike Blakeley, CEO
Marin Economic Forum

August 2023

Although COVID made a late summer cameo, it has for the most part been forgotten as a factor affecting today’s economy, as inflation, the stock market and mortgage rates dominate economic headlines. However, MEF continues to monitor the economic recovery from the pandemic times, considering it had such a significant impact in Marin in terms of business revenues, closures, and the labor market. In the “Monthly Economic Briefings” provided by MEF, we normally present a set of economic indicators that we rely on to measure the county’s economic health. Most of those indicators are routinely used by economists and policymakers while on occasion we identify alternative measures that help us understand the situation. Recently, sales tax revenues and newly available data on household tax returns, reported by the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), have been a relevant datapoint for analysis on the COVID economic recovery, including measuring Marin relative to the greater Bay Area. Let us start with the issue of migration and household income by county during the pandemic. Recall the narrative of the “Bay Area exodus” from urban cores, like San Francisco, as individuals gained the opportunity to work remotely. The appeal of relocating to a lower cost region became a compelling offer for many Bay Area residents. Companies like U-Haul regularly reported data confirming the flows of people moving and we learned that Bay Area residents were locating to places such as Sacramento and Seattle. The departure of major local corporations, like Tesla and Charles Schwab, also occurred at the same time, suggesting the Bay Area’s days as a leading region for high paying jobs and talented workforce were numbered. According to the IRS, (and analysis by EIG), Marin County aggregated household incomes increased by $216 million during the tax period of 2020-2021. That means despite the adverse impacts such as job loss and slowing of economic activity, Marin’s aggregated household incomes increased following the height of the pandemic in 2020. For comparison, Contra Costa County experienced a loss of $131 million while Alameda, San Francisco and San Mateo counties experienced losses of household income in the billions of dollars. We also know that population loss did occur in Marin at the same time, suggesting that the households that migrated to Marin County in the period had higher reported incomes than the net value of households which left. Strictly from the perspective of economic recovery, higher household incomes are a positive indicator. The next area of analysis is in tax revenues, specifically sales tax revenues across the county. In 2019, pre-pandemic, Marin County (all jurisdictions) collected $57 million in sales tax revenue, higher than the previous 4 years. In 2020, as expected, that figure dropped to just $52 million as business closures and other pandemic impacts affected the economy. In a sign of surging recovery, sales tax revenues jumped to $64 million in 2021 and $65 million in 2022 (Marin County Budget Overview FY 23-24). Again, from the perspective of tax revenue, or local sales of goods and services, Marin County has dramatically recovered economically to a level unseen before. Turning again to IRS data, Marin County was recently named “the best place for small businesses” according to SmartAsset, a free online service connecting consumers to financial advisors. SmartAsset analyzed tax returns of households in Marin County and found, relative to other counties in California, that there was a higher proportion of households filing as businesses (42% compared to just 25% of all Californians). This data suggests a high proportion of our residents are business owners and have likely weathered the severest moments of the pandemic storm. At the same time, local jurisdictions have reported that business license applications have increased over 2019 levels following a nation-wide trend that has seen new business starts up over 20% since pre-pandemic times. COVID itself is not necessarily in the rear view and MEF recognizes that not all businesses were able to survive the effects of shutdowns or even disruption to business models that may affect revenues. However, when looking at tax data as one form of measuring recovery, Marin County has performed very well, in fact better than most of its regional peers. In our effort to responsibly share data and information with our external audiences, we pay careful attention to data and other privacy rights to ensure compliance. In some cases, this means we can cite a source but we are unable to include access to the source itself as a link, attachment or otherwise, and it also requires careful attention to the reuse of that data for our own purposes.

Mike Blakeley, CEO
Marin Economic Forum

May 2023

When the pandemic hit, California’s tourism industry effectively shut down. Even when hotels and restaurants were permitted to resume operations, there wasn’t much interest to travel considering the high risk of contracting COVID. However, a recent report commissioned by “Visit California”, the state’s tourism agency, suggests tourism in California is almost to peak levels in 2019 and well on its way to a full recovery. As a $135 billion industry, that is good news for the state and the many businesses and employees that associate with the sector. But what about Marin? How are we doing and what is our outlook? Starting with the 2022 annual report of the Marin County Visitors Bureau, the organization that promotes tourism in Marin, hotel occupancy increased by over 11% from 2021 to 2022, averaging 72% occupancy. The portion of room revenues collected through the Transit Occupancy Tax (TOT) scheme from participating jurisdictions amounted to over $1.5 million in 2022, up significantly from the almost $1.1 million collected in 2021. So, clearly more people are staying in Marin, which is a more important metric than people visiting Marin from a revenue perspective, given the average spend of an overnight guest is $147/person compared to just $59/person for day trippers (MEF 2019). Circling back to the state report, Marin’s overall tourism performance is impressive, with total travel spending in Marin reported at $852.2 million, surpassing the $832 million reported in 2019, which itself was a seven-year high. These revenues generated over $73 million in state and local taxes, while providing employment to an estimated 5,600 persons. According to MEF’s own figures, the number of workers in Marin County that serve the tourism market could be as high as 30,000 – a huge portion of our approximately 120,000 jobs in the county, when occupations at hotels, restaurant, retail and other entertainment is considered. So, strictly from a numbers perspective, the importance of the tourism sector cannot be understated. Ask local elected leaders of our many cities and towns and they will collectively agree on the important economic opportunities visitors bring their downtowns. But there are reasons beyond local spending why tourism is important in Marin:As an industry, tourism leverages the existing natural beauty resources of the county, and doesn’t require a large footprint of buildings, relative to some other big industries. Marin County has made a tremendous effort over decades to protect open space and coastal areas not only for preservation but so residents (and visitors) can enjoy these spaces with a light footprint. The win-win effect is that we safeguard our environment while creating economic opportunities that are a direct result of the conservation effort. There are low barriers to entry for tourism-related local businesses. While Marin’s economy includes sophisticated sectors like biotech, IT and healthcare, which can require huge amounts of upfront capital to launch, most of the small businesses operating in the tourism sector rely on simple business models and minor capital requirements. From kayak rentals to event planners to charter fishing, tourism entrepreneurs have proven models and more immediate business ownership opportunities. Tourism will always be an important sector in Marin. The Marin economy is diverse, however, over time some industries have come and gone, while new ones (like biotech) were not even considered in Marin just 20 years ago. With protected natural assets, a dynamic regional economy, and always high interest in neighboring wine country or the many sporting and corporate events that draw visitors to the Bay Area, there will always be interest to visit and play in Marin. Tourism leads to growth in additional sectors. Visitors to Marin do not just come for the views. In West Marin, farms and ranches have been hosting tourists for meals and direct to consumer sales, bringing more economic activity to that sector. Most jurisdictions in Marin host some kind of event, be it the Fairfax Festival, the County Fair or otherwise, that rely on local labor, talent and businesses. The direct and indirect spending effects from tourism are among the most important of any sector in Marin. The most recent data regarding our tourism sector confirms it is on a steady return, on pace to surpass our previous high levels pre-pandemic. The data underlies a sentiment most of us residents already had, that our natural assets, if well managed, can provide economic and social benefits today and for years to come. In our effort to responsibly share data and information with our external audiences, we pay careful attention to data and other privacy rights to ensure compliance. In some cases, this means we can cite a source but we are unable to include access to the source itself as a link, attachment or otherwise, and it also requires careful attention to the reuse of that data for our own purposes.

Mike Blakeley, CEO
Marin Economic Forum

January 2023

As we enter 2023 and anticipate what the year holds for our local economy, it is critical to understand what impacts the pandemic has had and what should be considered cyclical or structural. Among the reasons the 2023 economy is so hard to predict is that we don’t know what is temporary (inflation?) or structural (remote work?). Let’s start by looking at what impacts are envisioned to be cyclical, meaning there is a high degree of fluctuation in the situation expected: E-commerce: As the pandemic hit, consumers underwent a “digital shift” to online shopping. According to Forbes, COVID-19 accelerated the growth of e-commerce by 4-6 years. However, sales via e-commerce have significantly declined as consumers shift back to in-person shopping. Over the next three years, e-commerce growth is expected to average between 4-5% by 2026 due to a mixture of preferences and economic conditions that, as of now, suggest slower economic growth. Despite e-commerce slowing as a form of commerce, Marin retailers likely won’t slow momentum towards accommodating both online and physical purchases. Consumers will continue to want goods and services “just one click away.” Commercial Real Estate (CRE): Real estate is always cyclical and despite the many warnings of commercial real estate’s doom early in the pandemic, many markets have either been resilient or experienced limited impact. In Marin County, where the limited volume of Class A properties keeps the price relatively stable, we haven’t experienced a precipitous drop in vacancy like our neighbors to the south (see “San Francisco”). While there was the exit of one large company (Autodesk) that could skew the vacancy data, albeit temporarily, most CRE firms operating in the market predict Marin to be stable, but with caution for 2023. With many office buildings owned by local owners, there isn’t expected to be a lot of turnover of properties, especially with higher relative interest rates. Although some larger footprint spaces, such as the Fireman’s Fund and Northgate Mall properties have been targeted for reconfiguration that includes housing, there aren’t many other properties in the county that might be candidates for such a transformation. We haven’t yet seen the impact of remote work on the CRE sector in terms of high vacancies, and more companies are signaling a return to office, perhaps even at a greater rate than the current hybrid approach (see “Twitter”). Where there does remain concern (and where officials might have to get creative) is the downtown retail segment. Consumption: At the outset of the pandemic consumers put a premium on all goods and services that made their homes more comfortable or efficient for work. Exercise equipment sales also skyrocketed, with bike stores barely able to keep inventory. For Marin retailers, it became a story of what you sold – you either experienced record sales or were barely able to keep afloat as the world shut down. Along with high demand came troubles in the supply chain which also affected consumption – even those retailers who could sell didn’t have the inventory to do so (think cars). Fast forward to the post-pandemic environment and observe how larger retailers are having to dump inventory. For example, while sporting goods retailers have been able to replenish inventory, consumers over-purchased in some cases and the used sporting goods market has surged with inventory, leaving local retailers flush with expensive inventory. Meanwhile, very important to the locally serving Marin economy, people have returned to in-person activities including restaurants, gyms, and movies (although not yet at pre-pandemic levels). According to the U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. selected services total revenue for the third quarter of 2022, was over $5 billion, an increase of 2.2 percent from the second quarter of 2022 and up 9.0 percent from the third quarter of 2021. Perhaps of greater interest is where we perceive structural changes in the economy and how that may affect performance going forward. Remote/hybrid work: As companies continue to determine their workplace policies, there is broad consensus that remote and hybrid work is here to stay. As reported in the North Bay Business Journal, a Nelson Staffing survey of 140 employers showed 40% of employers had chosen a hybrid model, 24% required workers back in the office full time, and 12% were letting employees decide where they want to work. Marin County already had a relatively high number of people working remotely or from home prior to the pandemic. The Bay Area Council estimates that at least 38% of current Marin jobs could be performed remotely although that does not account for the many sole proprietors or others that do not typically rely on an office. One of the opportunities generated by the evolution of remote work is the proliferation of non-degree jobs that can be performed remotely. Jobs such as data entry, customer service/scheduling, even some certification-based software jobs may provide the same benefits of remote work (thinking about childcare here) that have traditionally been reserved for the professional class. Public gathering activities: Although it is noted above that the services sector is recovering due to people’s desire to be in physical spaces, that doesn’t mean that all public gatherings are back to normal. For starters, many of the venues, including medical offices or even private venues still have COVID protocols in place. Masking in the grocery store, movie theatres, or on planes is still a common sight. When MEF speaks with Chamber of Commerce leaders or businesses themselves that rely on in-store consumption, there is broad consensus that a certain percentage of the population will not gain the confidence to be “out and about” at pre-pandemic levels. In the business meetings environment, there remains an interest for in-person meetings and events yet the evidence does not yet suggest this format maintains the appeal it once did (in 2020 MEF hosted a conference that had over 300 attendees; in 2022 the total was just 75). Job quality and benefits: The pandemic was noted for shining a light on the relationship individuals have with their employers. Beyond the approach to health and safety that employers had to consider, job responsibilities and benefits came under scrutiny by employees. What started as a fair debate about sick leave policies opened the door to discussions about hours, wages, and benefits, especially those like maternal or bereavement leave at the height of the pandemic. As these debates were raging, disenchanted employees began a wave of quitting which became the “great resignation” and metrics like the “quit rate” exploded. Some employees chose to quiet quit, which was more challenging to employers who observed productivity rates drop (see “Salesforce layoffs”). These cyclical and structural changes appear in the Marin economy everyday and support the need for strong employer-employee dialogues and careful analysis of the national, state and local economic conditions. MEF views the structural changes to the economy as both positive and negative, but that depends on the specific business. It suggests that business owners and entrepreneurs are going to have to consider these impacts in ways they may not have had to just 3 years ago.

Mike Blakeley, CEO
Marin Economic Forum

December 2022

As 2022 ends, MEF wanted to share our observations of the year’s biggest economic news in Marin County and what to look for in 2023. Make no mistake, 2022 was a tough year economically, especially at the national level. Will we see more positive changes in 2023? At the top of the news cycle is the continuing effects of the pandemic on local businesses, concentrated in recovery of small businesses and how the local economy fares given the differences in pre and post pandemic dynamics. From MEF’s perspective, one of the most troubling issues is the reduction in the labor force by more than 5% (or about 6,000 workers). Marin already faced a challenge to hire individuals, especially in the lower-wage occupations that many businesses rely on. That problem does not seem to have a solution in the near term, considering other, lower-cost Bay Area counties where Marin could draw workers, also face similar tight labor markets. Whether it be early retirement, potential health issues arising from contracting COVID, relocation out of Marin, or the need to provide child or elder care, Marin employers faced a hiring challenge throughout the year that constrained recovery. Going into 2023, one area of optimism is that some of the workforce will return with an increase in childcare slots, driven in part with new resources from the county for childcare providers. The other related issue is inflation, which at one point reached a 40-year high, and the Federal Reserve’s attempts to manage it by raising interest rates. The resulting increase in interest rates has adversely affected one of Marin’s most important revenue stream: sales of single family homes were down 22% in November 2022 from one year ago. As the Fed continues pursuit of a 2% target for inflation, those purchases relying on financing could continue to slip, which would affect Marin retailers and public sector coffers that collect sales tax. The issue of housing continued to be a focus during 2022 as the county and jurisdictions managed the preparation of “housing elements” in response to the “Regional Housing Needs Allocation (RHNA)”, which quantified the number of new units to be built in the period of 2023-2031. Each Marin jurisdiction will need to provide a housing element in 2023, setting the stage for extensive debate across the county, ultimately to plan to build over 14,000 new units in the 8-year period. Tech layoffs in response to economic slowdowns also made headlines towards the end of the year considering many Marin residents work in that sector. It’s too early to tell what the impact will be locally, especially since highly skilled workers continue to be in strong demand more broadly, but it remains something we are watching going into 2023 where we expect the economy to slow. These issues dominated the headlines, mostly because of the impacts on residents, both positive and negative. At the MEF-level, we had several successful activities in 2022 that we believe will lead to continued economic vitality in 2023. In March of 2022, we presented “Forecasting the Future” which highlighted local entrepreneurs who were able to navigate pandemic issues and even leverage the new dynamics for business growth. Whether by launching new ecommerce capabilities, streamlining communications to parents, or helping public entities identify funding opportunities, Marin’s entrepreneurs recognized the moment and the opportunity to build companies right here. MEF continues to follow the nascent start-up ecosystem in Marin while promoting its importance to good job creation. Look for our next “Forecasting the Future” program in March 2023. MEF partnered with the County of Marin to produce the first ever economic strategy for the county. The strategy is focused on delivering growth in key economic sectors in Marin while creating more middle and high wage jobs, so our residents don’t have to look outside of the county for good employment opportunities. The strategy puts equity upfront with initiatives to improve economic mobility and support greater opportunities for entrepreneurship among Marin’s BIPOC community. In 2023, the County will be reaching out to inform and listen about the key project opportunities to implement in the strategy. Finally, MEF continued outreach and engagement of the community and the non-profit sector to ensure all stakeholders have access to our economic data and analysis. We hosted web-based “economic briefings” each month with our insights of the economy helping leaders understand the risks and opportunities for their organizations and beneficiaries. In 2023, we hope to increase our audience so spread the word! While 2022 presented significant economic challenge, the year ahead sets up to be one of resiliency among the local business community and capitalizing on new commitments to more housing and jobs in Marin County.

Mike Blakeley, CEO
Marin Economic Forum

November 2022

The business news headlines in recent weeks have been dominated by stories of tech layoffs, seemingly more and more every week. The numbers of job losses are not only startling but WILL have impact in the tech rich Bay Area; according to research from the Bay Area Council, each Bay Area tech job is responsible for 4 additional jobs (often in the services sector). The business media and policy makers are trying to gauge the fallout and what it might mean for local economies. It is important to understand that the layoffs are driven by business dynamics and not a single, large, exogenous event (think the subprime meltdown that created the Great Recession). The pandemic created a massive shift to digital that required tech service providers to scale rapidly. For example, Meta/Facebook grew from 58,000 to 72,000 employees between 2021-2022, which puts into perspective their recent layoff of 11,000 employees (2,564 are in the Bay Area). A correction from massive growth had been previewed earlier this year when it became obvious the economy would slow in 2023. Another key factor is timing, specifically that many publicly traded companies release their earnings reports a couple weeks after a quarter, so the layoff news that started trickling in October reflected lower-than-expected earnings for the quarter ending in September for several brand name companies. Also related to timing is the annual planning most companies go through before the next fiscal year; those companies who run Jan-Dec fiscal years submitted budgets and annual operating plans that would have enacted layoffs before the holidays. There are likely positive and negative impacts to the Marin economy. Firstly, there are limited and lagging data sources that track what sector our residents work but, anecdotally, we know a lot of our neighbors are in tech. We also know from an earlier report from the San Francisco Business Times that the new residents to Marin in 2020-2021 had higher adjusted gross incomes (AGI) than those that moved out of Marin, likely some of those being tech workers leaving the city for the suburbs.  The most obvious negative impact would be a drop in consumption driven by lower discretionary income to spend on non-essential goods and services. Many Marin businesses are built to serve the more affluent consumer, with services like cosmetology and fine dining and goods, including clothing and cars. A drop in consumption among these businesses will not only impact the revenues of the businesses themselves but the funds that are generated for public entities through sales and other taxes. According to the Silicon Valley Business Journal, Bay Area tech salaries averaged $174,000 in 2022, which seems like a lot until you factor in the high cost of living across the Bay Area and Marin, where housing alone tends to gobble up well over the generally accepted ratio of 30% of income. That doesn‚Äôt leave a lot left over for a new TV, especially if that tech salary isn‚Äôt coming in. Lower consumption could set off a bit of a chain reaction among the small business sector which is just coming up for air following the pandemic. A survey of business owners by MEF in 2021 showed that business loans, credit card debt, and personal finances were increasingly keeping businesses afloat. The prospect of lower revenues or higher debt to sustain in a slow economy suggests more pain on the horizon, not only jeopardizing jobs but potentially lowering business investment and local consumption of everything from office furniture to website design. Policymakers have limited response mechanisms to business slowdowns as we saw during the pandemic, where the only response was either temporary regulatory relief or, in extreme cases, cash via grants. Neither is a likely option going forward. So where might there actually be positive effects from these layoffs? For starters, professionals in the tech sector will be demanded in other sectors, whether they be non-profits or newly emerging segments like food tech or climate tech, which happen to be popular subjects here in the nascent Marin start-up community. Further, there are already stories of laid-off employees starting new companies, and Marin is a great place for some of our resident tech experts to launch their company. The small tech community that is in Marin might potentially see some easing of their hiring challenge through a new crop of available talent – recall not all tech companies are laying off employees – mostly the large ones that grew so rapidly over the past couple years. MEF is projecting some slowdown and ‚ headwinds for the local economy going into 2023 and an uptick in unemployment among our high-income tech professionals could further exacerbate small business challenges. However, local leaders can seek the silver lining by continuing to find ways to support the local entrepreneurship ecosystem, especially for new generation start-ups, or by supporting the types of networking and conferences that connect professionals and create linkages to employment.

Mike Blakeley, CEO
Marin Economic Forum

October 2022

Early in the pandemic, I suggested to a KTVU news reporter that economic recovery in Marin would depend on a “resumption of consumption.” That is, once all businesses were allowed to be open and consumers felt safe to leave homes and spend money, they would, ushering back the robust, pre-pandemic, consumer-driven economy in Marin. Little did we know at the time, even with money to spend and stores to frequent, supply of goods, and not demand, would influence recovery. This fact was recently confirmed with the 2.0% GDP growth rate reported for Q3 2021 against an expectation of 6.8%; supply chain issues were the chief culprit of the slower rate of growth according to economists. That slow down in economic activity is also being felt in Marin, where all kinds of businesses cannot get the products they need or their customers want. To understand the supply chain issue, you must first look beyond the narrative that it has mainly to do with COVID-induced worker shortages. The production and movement of a good across the globe is a complicated feat. That water bottle or those shoes you purchased are the result of materials, production, energy, transportation and, yes, labor. A fault in any one of these factors of production can result in a temporary delay or price increase as we recently saw with lumber, which was a materials issue. However, in a recent congressional hearing convened by the House of Representatives Committee on Small Business, supply chain experts declared the early shutdowns from COVID set manufacturing and transportation behind, resulting in a higher-than-ever demand, exacerbated by long standing infrastructure issues. What is constraining supply chains goes beyond a shortage of workers they stated. What is driving demand? It really comes down to two main factors. First, spending habits have changed because of the pandemic. More money is flowing into goods, like home furnishings, than services, including travel or entertainment. Second, for multiple reasons, from government stimulus to increased asset values, people have more money to spend (household savings rates have never been higher) and borrowing costs for big purchases like cars and homes are extremely low.   To bring this down to the local level, demand for goods has remained high because many Marin residents’ income was not affected by the pandemic with easy shifts to remote work. Second, many small businesses were able to pivot to online selling, food delivery, or curbside pick-up which enabled consumers to consume, thus reinforcing the notion that goods were available when desired, despite a pandemic. In fact, county-wide sales tax revenues (including online purchases out of the County) increased during 2020 by over 10%. The high demand certainly enabled Marin businesses to sustain — they now need additional supplies. This is where the problem lies in Marin’s economic recovery. At the national level, spending on goods dropped by 9.2% between June and September, a direct result of lower inventories to sell. This was the first decline in spending since early in the pandemic when stores closed. So economic recovery is now less a factor of demand, which many of us considered the key to recovery, and more a factor of supply to feed demand. This dynamic is also problematic for Marin businesses who, simply put, are the furthest downstream in the global supply chain (as they sell to the final customer). That means these businesses yield little influence on production or delivery of goods they need, relative to larger operators, like national retailers or direct wholesalers/importers. Further, the relatively small market and business size in Marin means retailers that rely on global branded products may be lower priority for distributors, again, constraining retailers’ ability for throughput sales that would increase revenues. When will this end? In a recent Wall Street Journal survey of 67 economists, 33% predicted supply chain issues to be resolved by Q2 of 2022 (June) while an additional 47% predicted them to persist into Q3 and Q4. Even the world’s largest furniture maker, IKEA, announced it expects supply chain delays “well into 2022.” Is there an opportunity here? Perhaps. A recent study on manufacturing by the Bay Area Council Economic Institute evaluated opportunities for near shoring, reshoring (bringing manufacturing back stateside), and other manufacturing in the Bay Area region. There was some indication that the North Bay could do so with food and beverage, but not much else. Likely businesses and consumers will have to wait this one out. There are few, if any, policy tools to influence global supply chains (demanding opening a port 24/7 might be one but that remains to be seen). In the meantime, shop local, even if it’s a different color jacket or chair, because that is what is available and what our businesses need.

Mike Blakeley, CEO
Marin Economic Forum

June 2022

When COVID first hit and the Marin economy was shut down, stories of business closures started to trickle in. Some of the businesses had been serving the local community for 20, 30, even 40 years and now they met a premature end. In economic terms, we observed that businesses were not “resilient” – they didn’t have resources to withstand the economic shock. In human terms, we knew it simply seemed unfair. As this story played itself out across the country, another story was emerging, though not as visible: business license applications were soaring, averaging almost 400,000 per month nationally during 2021, an increase of over 25% from pre-pandemic times. Here in Marin County, applications were up almost 10% in 2020 vs. 2019 with a total of 3,025 licenses issued. Among these thousands of new businesses were those with a specific characteristic: a Marin-based founder looking well beyond Marin’s borders for customers. This is what I refer to as the “nextgen” Marin company: created by entrepreneurs who live in Marin but with the intent of selling goods and services outside of Marin, and often globally, relying on a distributed workforce with little to no office footprint. These companies are also geared to grow very fast, all while placing core values that most of us follow in Marin, such as sustainability and equity, at the front of their business models. One example is NewRetirement in Mill Valley, founded by Steve Chen who is also a Mill Valley resident. NewRetirement is a technology company that is making financial planning more understandable and effective for a growing number of Americans. In a short period of time, NewRetirement has attracted over 200,000 people to its free platform and signed-up over 7,000 paying customers, with a goal of getting to millions one day. In an interview with Marin Sonoma Impact Ventures, a venture fund and social enterprise supporting Marin start-ups, Chen talks about how excited he is about the entrepreneurial community in Marin and the “huge amount of intelligent, successful innovators who are community-minded.” The importance of the proliferation of these kinds of businesses cannot be overstated. Let’s go back to the resiliency issue. Businesses that rely on single markets (in this case the Marin market) will always be susceptible to localized economic shocks. Here in the North Bay, we have seen an increase in the number of natural disasters and power shutoffs that constrain business operations. There is little reason to think that will end, so businesses need to not only be prepared for disasters but think about what they can do to keep revenue streams flowing when their customer base cannot or will not consume their goods and services. The answer is having alternative markets and many entrepreneurs are figuring that out as they define their business models, even if they started their companies by selling locally. Second, from an economic perspective, every region needs to have a certain percentage of revenue derived from outside the region, so called “tradable goods and services.” The tradable sector, composed of companies like NewRetirement, produces goods and services that are “traded” to residents in other cities or countries and provides major opportunities for growth in revenues and incomes. In contrast, the non-tradable sector services the local population including Marin’s restaurants, yoga studios, and real estate agencies. The most successful regions are those that have a good balance of businesses providing tradable and non-tradable goods. A review of the 5 largest industry employers in Marin shows a disproportionate number in the non-tradable categories of: restaurants, outpatient health care, non-profit and human services, government and professional services. Retail trade and construction alone are responsible for approximately 13% of Marin’s $20+ billion gross domestic product. It’s not that firms operating in the non-tradable goods and service sector present a problem for Marin; they are necessary and loved by our community. However, there is an important need to grow the number of companies providing tradable goods and services. Economic literature confirms that wages in the tradable sector are typically higher than those of the non-tradable sector, due to higher skills demands to perform those jobs. With a rising cost of living and the need to attract and retain local talent, Marin can greatly benefit from an increased number of good paying jobs in the tradable sector. Growth of these higher wage jobs is also critical if we want to create pathways to economic mobility in Marin, securing better wage opportunities for our lower income residents with appropriate job training. Growth of tradable goods and services firms in Marin is not only the responsibility of private sector. Public sector has a role to play through traditional economic development approaches, including business attraction, workforce development or policy measures that allow companies to grow. To this latter point, the City of Novato deserves great credit for its recent approval of an ordinance to allow larger scale buildings for life sciences companies located in the Bel Marin Keys Industrial Park. Life sciences companies are the epitome of the “nextgen” Marin company; serving global markets with incredible innovation and creating good high wage jobs for our residents.

Mike Blakeley, CEO
Marin Economic Forum

June 2022

When COVID first hit and the Marin economy was shut down, stories of business closures started to trickle in. Some of the businesses had been serving the local community for 20, 30, even 40 years and now they met a premature end. In economic terms, we observed that businesses were not “resilient” – they didn’t have resources to withstand the economic shock. In human terms, we knew it simply seemed unfair. As this story played itself out across the country, another story was emerging, though not as visible: business license applications were soaring, averaging almost 400,000 per month nationally during 2021, an increase of over 25% from pre-pandemic times. Here in Marin County, applications were up almost 10% in 2020 vs. 2019 with a total of 3,025 licenses issued. Among these thousands of new businesses were those with a specific characteristic: a Marin-based founder looking well beyond Marin’s borders for customers. This is what I refer to as the “nextgen” Marin company: created by entrepreneurs who live in Marin but with the intent of selling goods and services outside of Marin, and often globally, relying on a distributed workforce with little to no office footprint. These companies are also geared to grow very fast, all while placing core values that most of us follow in Marin, such as sustainability and equity, at the front of their business models. One example is NewRetirement in Mill Valley, founded by Steve Chen who is also a Mill Valley resident. NewRetirement is a technology company that is making financial planning more understandable and effective for a growing number of Americans. In a short period of time, NewRetirement has attracted over 200,000 people to its free platform and signed-up over 7,000 paying customers, with a goal of getting to millions one day. In an interview with Marin Sonoma Impact Ventures, a venture fund and social enterprise supporting Marin start-ups, Chen talks about how excited he is about the entrepreneurial community in Marin and the “huge amount of intelligent, successful innovators who are community-minded.” The importance of the proliferation of these kinds of businesses cannot be overstated. Let’s go back to the resiliency issue. Businesses that rely on single markets (in this case the Marin market) will always be susceptible to localized economic shocks. Here in the North Bay, we have seen an increase in the number of natural disasters and power shutoffs that constrain business operations. There is little reason to think that will end, so businesses need to not only be prepared for disasters but think about what they can do to keep revenue streams flowing when their customer base cannot or will not consume their goods and services. The answer is having alternative markets and many entrepreneurs are figuring that out as they define their business models, even if they started their companies by selling locally. Second, from an economic perspective, every region needs to have a certain percentage of revenue derived from outside the region, so called “tradable goods and services.” The tradable sector, composed of companies like NewRetirement, produces goods and services that are “traded” to residents in other cities or countries and provides major opportunities for growth in revenues and incomes. In contrast, the non-tradable sector services the local population including Marin’s restaurants, yoga studios, and real estate agencies. The most successful regions are those that have a good balance of businesses providing tradable and non-tradable goods. A review of the 5 largest industry employers in Marin shows a disproportionate number in the non-tradable categories of: restaurants, outpatient health care, non-profit and human services, government and professional services. Retail trade and construction alone are responsible for approximately 13% of Marin’s $20+ billion gross domestic product. It’s not that firms operating in the non-tradable goods and service sector present a problem for Marin; they are necessary and loved by our community. However, there is an important need to grow the number of companies providing tradable goods and services. Economic literature confirms that wages in the tradable sector are typically higher than those of the non-tradable sector, due to higher skills demands to perform those jobs. With a rising cost of living and the need to attract and retain local talent, Marin can greatly benefit from an increased number of good paying jobs in the tradable sector. Growth of these higher wage jobs is also critical if we want to create pathways to economic mobility in Marin, securing better wage opportunities for our lower income residents with appropriate job training. Growth of tradable goods and services firms in Marin is not only the responsibility of private sector. Public sector has a role to play through traditional economic development approaches, including business attraction, workforce development or policy measures that allow companies to grow. To this latter point, the City of Novato deserves great credit for its recent approval of an ordinance to allow larger scale buildings for life sciences companies located in the Bel Marin Keys Industrial Park. Life sciences companies are the epitome of the “nextgen” Marin company; serving global markets with incredible innovation and creating good high wage jobs for our residents.

Mike Blakeley, CEO
Marin Economic Forum

March 2022

Early in the pandemic, former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers said, “In a sense, economic time has been stopped, but financial time has not been stopped.” What Mr. Summers was describing was those elements of the economy, including businesses, customers, and transport of goods that had simply stopped, whereas financial demands, like rent, and car payments did not. That put huge burdens on citizens that policymakers were challenged to handle with any expediency. As the world unceremoniously marks two years since the onset of the pandemic, the macro-level data is starting to look a lot rosier notwithstanding inflation and the war in Ukraine. But the data, while very positive, may not sufficiently capture the more human situation on the ground. Today, most in Marin know someone dealing with the fallout of “financial time” brought on by some facet of the pandemic — they may have lost a job, lost wages, increased debt, or been evicted. This stands in stark contrast to some of Marin’s traditional economic data. Let’s start with Marin’s low unemployment rate, which at 3.1% as of March 14, is lowest in the state and just about 1% higher than pre- pandemic levels. “Unemployment” measures individuals looking for work, so a low number is desirable. However, anyone who knows a business owner will be aware of how difficult it is to fill jobs. Businesses inability to hire staff is slowing Marin’s economic recovery and causing a headache for owners and managers. Meanwhile, our labor force is down by 3% (4,100 individuals) some of whom may have permanently left the workforce. So, business owners (and indirectly their employees) are still constrained by financial demands like rent or taxes even though the economy is “open”, and unemployment is not a policy problem. Another important indicator is sales tax revenues. Marin County reported a 10% increase in sales tax revenues for fiscal year 2020-2021 and recently the San Rafael Town Council approved spending of a projected $5 million surplus, composed mainly of increased sales tax revenues ($4.7 million). However, many downtowns have empty storefronts and a survey of businesses in Marin last year showed that 35% of respondents reported revenues were down over 50% from pre-pandemic rates. From an economic perspective, the fiscal health of public entities looks to have recovered from any early revenue drops due to COVID but from a financial perspective, many business owners have taken on more debt. And if you’re wondering how sales tax revenues can increase while businesses appear to be suffering, note that your online purchase via Amazon, from a vendor in Michigan, will still require you to pay local sales tax on the transaction. Residential real estate is a huge part of the Marin County economy. In 2019, real estate contributed approximately 20% to the county’s $20+ billion economy. Over the past 24 months the median house price in Marin County has increased by a staggering 28%. That’s great for property taxes and homeowners’ equity, but it’s not great for buyers whose mortgages are that much more expensive or to attract the middle- income workers Marin is already short of. Meanwhile, the financial cost to maintain a home, including increasing energy costs and services (construction, landscaping, etc.) continues to strain many Marin homeowners, including our seniors living on fixed incomes. It’s often said the numbers don’t lie. As data analysts, we would be the first to endorse that statement. However, sometimes the numbers don’t tell the whole story either.

Mike Blakeley, CEO
Marin Economic Forum

June, 2021

More than one year ago, when we were facing great uncertainty and anxiety about the economic impacts of COVID-19, I publicly called for our elected leaders to create a countywide economic strategy. The strategy would not only manage the previewed economic impacts from COVID-19 but chart a path forward for the county economy that could ensure economic vitality. That strategy and the future Marin economy is now underway, thanks to a federal grant obtained by MEF with the backing of the County of Marin. The “Marin County Economic Vitality Strategic Plan” is previewed for completion in early 2022. What is the importance of such a plan, now that life, and commerce, as we knew it, is slowly returning to something we recognize? For starters, all successful economies (cities, counties, states, etc.) are a result of some sort of planning, even if those regions serendipitously had assets (like minerals, or coastlines that drew tourists, or great universities producing talent, etc.). Second, during COVID-19 we learned a few things about our economy, and the people who compose it, that need to be addressed to secure an economy that works for all residents. Early in the pandemic, public and private sector leaders met regularly to support economic recovery, yet without an existing economic plan, that group, which included MEF, had to start from scratch. On the one hand, that left Marin behind other Bay Area counties that knew where and how to intervene to support businesses. On the other, leaders in Marin benefitted from lessons learned in other regions while cities collaborated through platforms like the Marin County Council of Mayors and Councilmembers to ensure approaches for supporting the economy could be shared (think how towns rapidly accommodated outdoor dining). These actions were undertaken organically in response to the pandemic but, going forward, everyone agrees we need a plan for our economy and the time is now. So, what will be in the plan and how do we know what we want in the future? Most economic strategies are formulaic, identifying a regions assets and determining an approach to leveraging those assets in pursuit of specific objectives. Those objectives (and economics more broadly) are about much more than businesses selling a lot of goods or services. Common economic development objectives focus on “quality of life” issues like education, jobs, and the environment and other attributes a community relies on. Good economic planning examples can be found in activities already underway, like the county’s effort to develop a broadband strategy that will enhance resident access to the internet and all the benefits that accrue. Drawdown Marin, the county’s effort to reduce greenhouse gases, is another good example of initiatives that will improve the economy, by focusing on public transportation, among others. What the economic plan will do is link these programs to higher level goals, like increasing resident incomes through middle and high-skill job creation, assuring that resource mobilization is done with as much purpose as possible. The other benefit to this plan is the opportunity for the community to express their desires for what kinds of sectors we want to compose our economy. For example, most Marin residents agree that the life sciences sector is one they want to see flourish but how to enlarge and support that sector is currently unknown. And what are the sectors of Marin’s future? In the 2004 “Marin County Targeted Industries Study” biotech wasn’t even mentioned yet today those businesses are among our largest employers, along with other newer sectors like gaming and wellness. Conversely, some of our sectors are not flourishing, like agriculture and brick and mortar retail. How will we treat those sectors going forward? The thing about the plan that encourages me the most is the acknowledgement from leaders that our economy is worth planning. Marin County’s perception as a “bedroom community” (where people live but commute out of for work) is not the desired goal from the people that I talk to, which includes youth, BIPOC business owners and entrepreneurs. There is a growing sense that our economy can be better by unleashing its creativity and capital, creating and building a workforce for more skilled jobs, and assuring that kids that grow up here can have a future here without too many zeros attached to their paychecks. It is all achievable, but more so with a plan.

Mike Blakeley, CEO
Marin Economic Forum

May, 2021

In 2008, the Marin County Community Development Agency commissioned a report to consider creating an “economic sustainability organization.” The report proposed a structure and budget for such an organization and that served as the foundation for what would become MEF. That is a great story in and of itself, but not the point of this article. Also included in the report, limited to just a paragraph, was a discussion of a metric called the “Self Sufficiency Standard” (SSS) which measures how much income is needed for a family of a certain composition, in a given county, to adequately meet their basic needs. According to the metric, in 2008 a single parent, two-child household in Marin would have needed an income of $68,880 to meet self-sufficiency. At the time, at least 27% of the population was living below that income line. Using additional socio-economic data, the authors stated there were “two Marins” and warned that by focusing on the unemployment rate or prioritizing high real estate values would have negative effects on the economy in terms of productivity, wages, even traffic (because so many residents commuted outside the county for their high paying jobs). At the time, we were entering what would be the Great Recession, so the economy was in focus. Fast forward to 2021 and as Marin County is easing out of a global pandemic that witnessed disparities between rich and poor, the notion of “two Marins” is back in the discussion, this time in the form of the uneven “K-shaped” recovery (see graphic). Like in 2008, as Marin County pursues economic vitality, where all residents have access to goods and services, education, jobs and wealth, policy measures will have to consider some of the underlying socio-economic conditions. The one that jumps to the top for MEF is incomes, especially considering the high cost of living in Marin County.     To understand our concern, let us return to the SSS metric. Using the same family composition as was used in the 2008 report, we find the current income requirement (2021) to achieve self-sufficiency in Marin County would be $160,957. If you use two adults and two children, the level is estimated at $164,763. Both figures are more than double the 2008 figure. According to the Insight Center in Oakland, who publishes “The Cost of Being Californian 2021” based on the “Family Needs Calculator”, 37% of households in Marin do not make enough income to make ends meet. If true, that would be a 10% increase since the 2008 report, confirming by some measures, incomes are not rising at the same pace as costs. Addressing incomes and income inequality is hard, especially at a local level. Most policy solutions involve federal or state level changes, such as tax codes, minimum wage, and education. However, there are programs in Marin that would be considered as helping citizens secure higher incomes (from MEF’s perspective). Some of the most visible efforts are happening in the education sector. Quite simply, improving education and skills has been found to be the best way to secure economic mobility. Improving income prospects for Marin residents starts with their ability to obtain the skills and experience to secure good jobs.   At the K-12 level, the Marin County Office of Education has developedseveral programs aiming to provide career opportunities to youth. College of Marin has 40 career certificates and degrees and 10 Skill Certificates to advance one’s career to the next level. While there is consensus on the ability of education to positively affect incomes, the issue for Marin residents (and others) is how to ensure access, namely that cost does not become a barrier. Several policies at the state and federal level are currently being discussed, including making community college tuition free. Another approach, worth noting because it is being tried in Marin, is “universal basic income” (UBI). UBI essentially provides direct cash payments to individuals that are unconditional. In March of this year, Marin County agreed to provide funding to a UBI pilot implemented by the Marin Community Foundation. Results won’t be known for some time, but the approach is gaining momentum around the country based on positive outcomes. At the other end of the spectrum is employment. The pandemic had a major impact on employment in Marin, especially for workers in lower wage occupations, and getting those residents back to work is a key task for recovery. But for the sake of this discussion, we suggest that for employment to have an impact on incomes, Marin County will need to create better paying jobs, specifically more middle and high skill jobs. According to the MIT Living Wage Calculator, a family of 2 adults and two children would need for each adult to average $36.35/hour to meet basic needs. A single parent with just 1 child would need to make a whopping $55.92/hour. For contrast, a review of the hourly rates for occupations in the San Francisco Metro Area (which includes Marin County) by the Bureau for Labor Statistics shows that the mean hourly wage is just $29.71. Further scrolling through the thousands of occupations shows that many, including those that are prevalent in Marin County, make even less than $25/hour (Supervisor of Retail Sales-$22/hour, Dental Laboratory Technician-$20/hour, Janitors $18.70/hour, Foodservers $16.50/hour, etc.). We’ve long known that Marin’s future economic prosperity depends greatly on the ability to have a dependable workforce and a big part of that is ensuring the workforce can live here. At the other end of the spectrum, we’ve also known that having good career opportunities (jobs) for our residents at all income levels is the key to their economic mobility and ability to stay here in Marin. Increased incomes via good education and well-paying job opportunities will go a long way towards achieving economic vitality in Marin County.

Mike Blakeley, CEO
Marin Economic Forum

April, 2021

As you have no doubt heard, the US economy is back to its booming self. The most recent report of 6.4% gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the first quarter exceeded economists predictions and on an annualized basis would represent the fastest rate of growth since 1984. We know that vaccines, reopenings, huge federal stimulus, and pent-up spending are fueling the recovery at this faster rate. It is yet another example of how consumers drive the U.S. economy, and why I stated on KTVU news that Marin County’s recovery would be highly dependent on a “resumption of consumption.” So here we are . . . and this is where we think the action for Marin businesses will be. GDP growth is being led by spending in durable goods, and while many categories experienced an uptick  during the pandemic, recent increases in consumption are due to federal stimulus and re-employment for many individuals. Goods categories with the most demand include, but are not limited to: cars (+15% over 2019 peaks), household goods (+17%), and recreational goods (+26%). Cities in Marin that are home to these types of retailers, especially San Rafael, Corte Madera, and Novato, have been experiencing an uptick in action. It’s important to note that customers of these goods don’t just reside in Marin, many are from surrounding Bay Area counties, or even other states purchasing online (more on this later).   Besides retailers, much of the Marin economy is composed of in-person services companies, which were hardest hit by government shut-downs, and responsible for most of the job losses that occurred. MEF researched the in-person services categories nationally to identify trends or predictions. Some of the most useful data comes from a recent report by Cardify, which surveyed credit card holders on future spending in services categories. The charts below are a great barometer of where consumers are planning to spend money on services. All tables produced by Cardify AI (www.cardify.ai) Given the high rate of vaccination in Marin County, MEF expects spending in these categories to be robust, giving further confidence in an expedited recovery. But the restoration of spending at local businesses is only part of the “action” we are talking about here. The other action we hope to see is our policymakers and business leaders learning from the pandemic and purposefully planning the Marin economy in way that allows us to be less dependent on our local consumers and better oriented towards future growth sectors that not only proved resilient through the pandemic in terms of growth and job gains/retention, but also will shape future consumption patterns (think about the proliferation of grocery and food delivery in Marin). Trends like remote/distributed workforces, digitally shifting services like banking and healthcare, and more direct-to-consumer business models are both and opportunity and a threat to the Marin economy. “Action” from the MEF perspective doesn’t just mean more shopping, which our local businesses do need us to do and we will. Action also means proactively developing an approach towards strategic growth, more middle and high skill job opportunities, and a resilient economy that can potentially insulate from future economic shocks.

Mike Blakeley, CEO
Marin Economic Forum

March, 2021

COVID’s impacts to businesses are well known. The slowing of the economy due to shutdowns caused great financial stress and the need to adapt business models. The future is unknown with the rise of remote work and uncertainty on how consumers will spend or travel in a post-COVID environment. Here in Marin, the future may not be so opaque because our economy is largely oriented towards serving the local market. As we reopen and people get vaccinated, we anticipate demand to mostly return without major changes, though we do not know how long that will take. That sentiment prompted me to revisit a major project MEF was implementing in late 2019/early 2020, which was disrupted by the pandemic, but not before a major phase of the project was complete. The “Marin County Business Retention & Expansion Project” was designed by MEF and funded by the County of Marin. The project’s objective was to identify the challenges and opportunities for businesses to grow and then initiate programs in the county to address those challenges. Following dozens of interviews, surveys, and economic analysis by MEF, a reportsharing the findings was published in March, just days before the COVID-19 crisis went into full effect. Now one-year later, it seemed an appropriate time to compare the challenges and opportunities businesses had pre vs. the anticipated post-COVID environment. The number one priority/challenge for Marin businesses in 2019/20 was hiring. At the time, Marin County’s unemployment rate hovered between 2.5-2.9%, representing close to “full employment” in economic terms (when everyone who wants a job has a job). The hiring challenge was most acute at the lower skilled occupations, such as restaurant workers and retail store merchants, but also in some of the higher skilled jobs like architects and software engineers. MEF concluded our resident workforce was not aligned to job demand, but that wasn’t simply an issue of lack of housing, often blamed for our lack of workforce. In fact, for as diverse as the Marin economy is, with 20+ sectors contributing to our Gross Regional Product, the economy is also quite “shallow”, meaning not enough companies in those sectors to attract a large enough workforce to ensure a pipeline of workers. For example, software engineers are not abundant in Marin because there are few local employers and not everyone wants a commute. Let’s contrast the hiring challenge with the current situation. As of this writing, unemployment in Marin County stood at 5%, almost double pre-COVID-19 levels, but lowest in the state of California. That is down from a high of over 11% in April 2020. According to a recent business survey(1200 respondents), almost 50% of businesses have remained in business with the same number of staff compared to 16% that reduced staff. Another 6% have increased staff while 8% plan to downsize operations. So, some growth, mostly status quo, and some decrease. However, as Marin County moves into less restrictive tiers and businesses open at greater capacity, there is an expectation that demand for goods and services will spike (also the narrative at the national level). This fact, along with historical consumption patterns in Marin suggests our businesses will soon find themselves in the situation of competing for employees, especially in the services sector. The next biggest challenge was securing sales and customers, which could be understood more generally as “competition.” Among the project sector focus group meetings, the retail sector cited sales equally with hiring. Already under pressure from online retailers, Marin’s retail sector had been integrating “experiential” retail formats as well as new delivery options while successfully catering to the community’s desire to shop local and “shop small.” One hardware store was expanding despite the presence of Home Depot, Lowes, and Costco. It would be an understatement to say that during COVID-19 consumers shifted a major portion of purchasing to online; online retail sales increased by 44% in 2020. This consumption was not limited to durable goods as services, including exercise, training, banking, and entertainment, made a significant “digital shift” over the past year. Certainly Marin businesses were able to adapt to an online format and participate in the shift. Going forward, businesses will continue to be concerned about their ability to secure customers, especially those with brick-and-mortar operations that depend on a physical visit to make a sale. The third concern was “transportation” and very specifically last-mile transportation that would allow employees or customers to reach final destinations without the use of a private vehicle (Uber and Lyft notwithstanding). Pre-pandemic, MEF was already sharing this information with the Transportation Authority of Marin, who had in place ride-share programs and was preparing to launch a bike-share pilot. As we mostly know, public transportation almost ceased completely, dropping 87% in the Bay Area in the early pandemic days. How quickly demand returns and how routing can accommodate the needs of employees and employers remains a bigger unknown then how Marin was going to address the last-mile issue in the first place. Finally, businesses were concerned pre-pandemic with their ability to secure sufficient commercial real estate for their business operations, given a relatively small office footprint in Marin, especially of the coveted “class A” properties that typically house professional services firms. Contrary to many other areas of the country, which have experienced a flight from commercial space, the Marin market did not experience a “dip” in lease prices due to the pandemic. Further, new designs for large commercials spaces in Northgate and Novato have trended towards mixed-use, accommodating much needed housing. Just as before, businesses seeking growth in Marin County could be faced with limitations. Comparing the challenges and priorities of Marin businesses pre and post COVID shows very little difference, which can be both positive and negative. On the one hand, despite a major, once-in-a lifetime economic shock our economy is mostly on a path to recovery. On the other, returning to the status quo will present old problems, which were already difficult to deal with and have not been changed due to the pandemic (such as how other cities are reimagining commercial real estate footprints and streetscapes or preparing for a remote work economy). Now more than ever, dealing with the challenges our businesses face needs to be a priority-not just because we want recovery but because we have deeper competitiveness issues that need addressing if we want a competitive and resilient economy in the future.

Mike Blakeley, CEO
Marin Economic Forum

February, 2021

The date of March 13th is burned into my brain. That was the day state and local governments announced businesses, excluding those deemed “essential”, would need to cease operations due to the public health emergency we know as the coronavirus. At that time, no one could have imagined that a year later Marin’s restaurants, gyms and yoga studios, and business offices would still be closed in one form or another. Yet here we are, with slim prospects at the time of this writing, that the “normalcy” we enjoyed will fully return. It begs the question – what is next for our Marin economy? Whether you have followed MEF’s numerous reports or simply the local news, you will have a good sense of the impacts of the pandemic on our economy, including the fact that small businesses have been hit the hardest, with closures and layoffs. You will have heard the sad stories of our black and brown communities being disproportionately affected with cases as they had no economic choice to opt out from work due to financial need. You will also know that there are pockets of resiliency in Marin; our residents working in the knowledge economy have successfully pivoted to remote work, some businesses, like home furnishings and sporting goods stores, benefitted from pandemic-driven lifestyles, and asset prices, like homes and stocks enjoyed greater than usual value increases. Suffice to say, the recession that was predicted at the outset of the pandemic did not materialize in a traditional way and we should consider that recovery of our Marin economy will not be traditional either. From MEF’s perspective, recovery of the Marin economy should embrace some new approaches, starting with the creation of a first-ever economic strategy for the county. Readers may be surprised to learn that there is no current county-wide strategy for our economy. That means we don’t have any prioritization of business sectors; we don’t have an approach to workforce development that assures a pipeline of employees for our most important sectors; and we don’t have any tools to attract businesses and create jobs for our residents. Creating an “economic vision” that will guide resources and energy towards creating the economy we want in the future will be a critical piece of our recovery. Another new approach, though one which both the county and individual cities have embraced, is ensuring economic recovery puts our low-income residents upfront. All of the data MEF has presented confirms that unemployment caused by the pandemic has affected our low-income workers, and as confirmed by the Public Policy Institute of California, historically recovery from recessions takes longer for low-income households (following the Great Recession low-income families in the Bay Area took on average 11 years to recover versus just 5 years for high-income ones). Assuring jobs, via upskilling or retraining of our low-income residents, is a faster pathway to economic recovery and prosperity than simply getting them rehired for the same low-wage jobs they previously held. Finally, Marin County should consider creating a public agency responsible for economic development to ensure proactive management of our economy. As the only Bay Area county that does not have a public agency for economic development, Marin County and its businesses may be missing opportunities to secure federal funding that will help rebuild and strengthen our economy. In addition, most regions have appointed their public economic development agencies to lead the recovery efforts, streamlining the task and clarifying for the community who is responsible and where to go to get support. As businesses and residents look to manage the fallout, as well as opportunities that may emerge from the pandemic, having a single, public agency to guide and facilitate those efforts will buoy chances for successful recovery and a strong future economy. Coronavirus has created economic conditions like no other event, with winners and losers in our local economy. But recovery is about all our residents prospering together. To do so will require some approaches Marin County has not taken in the past. We should do so now to secure the future.

Mike Blakeley, CEO
Marin Economic Forum

December, 2020

According to most economists, including MEF’s Chief Economist Dr. Robert Eyler, the nation has moved from “recession” to “recovery.” That may be the case in Marin County, where unemployment has dropped to 5.4% from a peak of 11.2% in April. But a drill-down in the data shows differing circumstances across the resident population, suggesting that our recovery will need to be targeted, rather than one size fits all. The first and most obvious group are the small business owners. Remember that over 75% of all businesses in Marin County have 9 employees or fewer and within that group over 40% have between 1-4 employees. According to Opportunity Insights “Small Businesses Open” indicator, almost 40% of small businesses in the Bay Area have not reopened since the initial shelter in place orders. Many of these businesses are concentrated in the personal services sector, meaning they have been subject to government shutdowns and in many cases unable to operate. However, the needs of this group are well known, and they have a strong group of advocates, from Chambers of Commerce to the County’s “Marin Recovers Economic Recovery Task Force.” Supporting recovery for our small businesses must include financial support, community support (shop local!), and a productive (and empathetic) working relationship with regulators at the city and county level to adapt to a new consumer environment. There are two other groups of residents who remain critical to our recovery. The first group are Marin’s lower-income residents. A recent publication by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) showed that rates of unemployment from coronavirus in California range from 25 to 30 percent for families with incomes under $30,000, compared to 5 to 10 percent for families with incomes above $150,000. Mean income data for Marin County will always be skewed by a large concentration of high income earners, but according to the most recent Census data, almost 23% of households in Marin have incomes of $50,000 or less. What is more concerning about the findings of the PPIC report was that based on the last recession (2008), low-income families in the Bay Area took on average 11 years to recover versus just 5 years for high-income families. The report also confirms that income inequality widened following the last 4 recessions in California, suggesting the same phenomena could occur this time as well. The second group are women. Nationally, 11.5 million women lost their jobs between February-May compared to just 9 million men. Hispanic women experienced the steepest decline in unemployment at 21%. The figures were so alarming that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell cited women’s unemployment as a concern to national economic recovery. These figures led people to label the recession of 2020 a “shecession” in acknowledgement that women were more deeply affected. Women make up a large proportion of employment in personal services jobs, and those jobs have declined 60% in Marin County since 2019. Especially hard hit were nail and hair salons, primarily owned by women residents of Marin. Getting women back to work is not simply a function of job openings; many have dropped out of the workforce to care for children or elderly parents.  Around the Bay Area counties are developing economic recovery strategies that fit the needs of their residents and economy, and Marin will do the same. As we do so, recognizing where the pain points are and WHO they affect will be an important influence of WHAT those strategies will be.

Mike Blakeley, CEO
Marin Economic Forum

September, 2020

From an economic standpoint, Marin County is often envied. Our annual gross regional product (a measure of all economic activity in the county) is over $20 billion annually derived from a diverse group of sectors. Our median household income stands at $122,933, almost $50,000 more per household than the national average (2018). Our educational attainment, where 93% of residents have a high school degree and 60% have a bachelor’s degree, is superior to both the national and state average. The life expectancy of residents stands at 83.8 years, ranking Marin #1 in the State of California, an honor the county has upheld for 8 years running (by 2018). In general, and as noted by this organization many times, Marin County fares better economically relative to the State of California – which I remind you has an economy that would rank 5th largest in the world.

Despite this data, COVID-19 impacts on the Marin economy are worse than the state averages in certain categories, according to data we shared in the latest “Marin Economic Briefing.” For example:According to the Opportunity Insights Economic Tracker, a project that aggregates various data sources, small business revenues in Marin County are down a whopping 40.2% compared to just 16% at the state level from January 15, 2020.The total non-farm jobs losses since July 2019 exceed the statewide average in % terms (-11.3% in Marin County vs. -9.5% statewide). Looking further at job loss, as of the end of July 2020, over 7,700 people have left the labor force in Marin County, neither working nor collecting unemployment insurance. This works out to 5.4% of our labor force, which is almost double the 3% rate of the state. Compared to state averages, more Marin residents are losing their jobs or exiting the labor market entirely.The third area where Marin is performing worse than the state is in COVID-19 cases, specifically, who in our community is contracting the virus. It has already been well documented by the Canal Alliance that the Latino population in Marin County has been disproportionately affected by COVID-19, with 75% of the cases among just 16% our population. The case rate among Latino’s in Marin is at least 14% higher than the next county in California, which is Napa (57%), but Napa’s Latino population is more than double the proportion of residents relative to Marin County, at 35%.

So how did we get here? Once again, the data offers a potential answer. Marin County is overwhelmingly an economy of small, micro-businesses, with 40% of our 14,000+ businesses having fewer than 4 employees. Typically, such small companies are not in great positions to withstand a cash crisis and maintain payroll, so that explains some of the higher relative job loss. Further, MEF found that half of all employment in the county is in personal service sectors (retail, restaurants, construction, hotels, salons, gyms, real estate) putting those jobs at high risk from a shut-down, and that is exactly what happened when we review state unemployment data for job loss by sector. Second, the personal services sector traditionally accounts for over 50% of total gross regional product in Marin County. So, the high proportion of those companies in our economy relative to the state explains the big difference in small business revenue declines. Finally, the high case rate among our Latino population is in part due to the “essential” work they perform in our economy, which is concentrated in low-wage jobs that serve the resident population. Their need to continue working to keep the economy from a complete shut-down meant they were at higher risk to contract the virus. From one perspective, Marin County’s economic impacts from COVID-19 are the result of an economy highly dependent on the local market. Once that market was disrupted, a large portion of our economy (revenues, jobs) was lost. In economic terms, one could say our economy was not organized to be “resilient”, meaning we could withstand shocks. What this means going forward for MEF is that while our short term recovery must restore the economic activity our existing businesses can achieve, longer term the county will benefit from a more diverse industry mix that provides goods and services beyond our county borders.

Mike Blakeley, CEO
Marin Economic Forum

July 20, 2020

The COVID-19 crisis has exposed many things. First, our nation was not as well equipped to deal with a health pandemic as we may have thought. Past decisions on preparations and funding created a situation where the US health sector does not have sufficient resources to confront the virus. Second, small businesses, the backbone of our economy, do not have the liquidity to withstand several months of business closure. Finally, as with any disaster, the economically vulnerable are more acutely affected than those that have the resources to withstand or recover from shocks. Recent research by the Center for Equity, Gender and Leadership at UC Berkeley presents clear evidence of the severe negative economic impacts from COVID-19 on people of color and women.

This final point is on full display here in Marin County. The job losses resulting from government shut-downs and lack of consumer consumption are concentrated in low-wage jobs, in the leisure & hospitality sector (employment down 46% from 2019), and retail sector (employment down 16% from 2019). Meanwhile, higher wage occupations in the financial services and information technology sectors have experienced job losses of less than 4%. We also know that front-line workers in the healthcare, janitorial, and grocery sectors have experienced higher infection rates than those residents in occupations accommodating work from home. Finally, and unfortunately, the data from Marin County Health and Human Services confirms that our communities of color in Marin are disproportionately affected by the virus, registering almost 80% of positive COVID-19 cases, although these communities represent just 29% of our population.

Understanding that our economic recovery is not going to “snapback” and, in fact, may be more devastating than the Great Recession, regions are commencing the difficult task of planning for an uncertain future. The Marin Economic Forum (MEF), which has “enhancing social equity” in its mission statement, is encouraging any future plan for our economy to be “equitable.” What does that look like? Fortunately, there is a lot of discussion on the topic but MEF sees a few areas to prioritize.
 First and foremost, we need to ensure that any long-term planning for our economy include input from stakeholders in our most vulnerable communities, including our LatinX and African American residents, our older adults, veterans, youth, and those dealing with physical or mental illness.
Second, an equitable recovery must ensure that the long-term effects from the virus do not worsen inequality, by creating further financial damage to individuals that were already on the economic margins. To do so, getting those who lost jobs back to work quickly must be a priority, including the possibility that some will need to be retrained or reskilled. We need to leverage the capacity of organizations like CareerPoint and the many non-profits that link vulnerable communities to employment opportunities.

Third, we must consider how to support individuals that want to start their own business but do not have the resources or means to obtain mainstream financing or other incentives. This means a concerted effort to link entrepreneurs to the many forms of free assistance offered through organizations like the Marin Small Business Development Center or other entrepreneurship entities that have now shifted their training online. It also means more engagement with Community Development Financial Institutions (CDFIs) like Pacific Community Ventures, which specialize in working with small business owners like female entrepreneurs, immigrant entrepreneurs, and entrepreneurs of color.

Finally, any future strategy for the economy must prioritize the attraction of companies that can bring more middle-skill jobs to Marin, the types of jobs that require skills but not necessarily a 4-year degree. Sectors like IT support, banking, and even biotech have occupations that are skills-based, not education based, and pay a suitable living wage, even by Marin standards. According to data from the Marin Promise Partnership, just 38% of students of color completed college or post-secondary education in 2019 compared to 62% of white students. While getting more students to complete college remains a priority for all Marin families, creating good employment opportunities must be a part of any economic strategy.

These are but a few of the ideas to ensure our future economic recovery is equitable. There are many more, and MEF is happy to solicit those ideas from our community.

Mike Blakeley, CEO
Marin Economic Forum

May 27, 2020

As the world reluctantly accepts a shift from “back to normal” to the “new normal”, industry sectors are strategically considering their futures, with a strong likelihood that a new business model will be required. Organizational change is hard, so this process will be difficult and for some, perhaps even emotional.

An informative article from the MIT Sloan Management Review describes the changes in operations many name brand companies have made since COVID-19. Most of the changes show how companies were able to leverage and pivot. This will be the prevailing strategy that most businesses take in the short-to-medium term. For a large company with resources like senior executives and cash, implementing change in a rapid way is possible. While small businesses are nimble, significant changes to a business model can be difficult and often not desirable.

Marin County has long been recognized as an economy of small businesses. Almost 70% of all payroll firms in the county employ 9 people of fewer. Despite the small scale of companies, the county is host to a highly diverse number of sectors. This provides a front row seat to the coming business model changes, whether they be in restaurants, health care providers, education, or even technology.

One of the most prevalent sectors in Marin County is retail. Already facing pressure from the growth of ecommerce, retail was hit hard by the shelter-in-place order that effectively closed doors for 2 months now. This article by Forbes suggests the retail landscape is going to significantly change in response to consumer shopping preferences, which will not only prioritize convenience (through online shopping), but also safety. Many small businesses provide a more personal touch but as noted by a representative of famed Marin menswear shop Gene Hiller, “Nobody’s going to want to buy a suit or sport coat curbside.”

Restaurants are a large source of employment in Marin economy. Credit is due to the many restaurants that were able to quickly pivot operations towards delivery and take out, yet many employees in this sector lost jobs. It may be too early to understand how this sector will adapt but what is clear is the need to guarantee safety for diners. Restaurant owners will need to re-think current business processes to support improved safety over labor and production efficiency.

Specialty food and beverage companies were also quick to pivot, producing the same product but opening new sales channels, namely direct-to-consumer (DTC). In some cases, serving the DTC channel only required adjustments to existing web-based commerce or changing packaging to enable smaller scale ordering. Producers were already pursuing methods to shrink the supply chain to the end customer-COVID-19 will surely accelerate the DTC business model.

The real estate sector (including rentals and leases) is another major sector in Marin, representing almost 20% of the GRP in 2018. Although the Marin residential real estate market is hyper local, innovations in the sector launched pre COVID-19 could eventually appear. One such innovation, referred to as “iBuying” provides an alternative to would-be sellers by providing online, cash offers. Some iBuyers, like San Francisco-based Opendoor, put operations on hold during COVID-19 with the uncertainty of home prices but are slowly coming back, relying on sophisticated data analytics to model pricing. Again, the Marin real estate market may not be the place for iBuying but business models that can expedite transactions while minimizing human contact may become more desirable. 

While Marin County is not a “tech hub” by any stretch, a high number of our residents work in the tech sector and many for start-ups. Start-up growth may be delayed by a smaller pool of available venture capital, but some have used the pandemic to retool their products to respond to new demands. One such start-up is Bay Area-based Pathr, which uses artificial intelligence to predict spatial movements. In response to new social distancing requirements (which may be with us a long time) Pathr developed “Socialdistance.ai”, an AI solution created to help businesses safely reopen and protect customers and staff by evaluating foot traffic, layout, and establishing social distancing options. 

Longtime Marin businesses have showed resiliency before, remaining open despite previous recessions and competition from big box retail. Doing so this time might require wholesale changes to the business model but I am confident many will rise to the challenge of a post COVID-19 market.

Mike Blakeley, CEO
Marin Economic Forum

April 23, 2020

As the world manages the COVID-19 crisis, there is a parallel effort to defeat the disease and limit the deep economic shocks. In the U.S., the Federal government has acted with more speed than ever before to put economic assistance in place, at the institutional level, the business level, and the human level. The logic goes that providing sufficient relief will carry us through to a point where the health risk is low enough for economic activity to resume and the broader economy to get back on track, ideally in a shorter period of time than it took in past recessions. The major outstanding question now is when will we get to a phase where economic recovery can begin? That question is being debated and will almost certainly be a state-by-state decision.

I understand most businesses (including sole proprietors) are in survival mode right now. At the risk of oversimplifying their plight, businesses’ ability to survive primarily depends on operating cash. “Essential” businesses have some opportunity to sustain a revenue flow (even if greatly reduced) while others will rely on negotiations with landlords or creditors to defer expenses. Perhaps some businesses will succeed in accessing federal support that will serve as a lifeline for the next 60-90 days. Many businesses, unfortunately, will not reopen. As this fight for survival plays out, MEF is already planning for recovery, by analyzing three critical questions:

What will the “snapback” sectors be in Marin? Marin County is a service economy and mostly oriented towards its residents. We have a high concentration of restaurants, salons, dentists, gyms and yoga studios, etc. When the shelter-in-place (SIP) order is lifted, these kinds of businesses will experience immediate demand, pent-up over the last few months. Understanding which sectors will be poised for a quick “snapback” will be important so that they can be sure to be ready (in terms of supplies, workers, credit, etc.) to accommodate the consumers and get their businesses back up to speed. There would be nothing worse than to survive the short-term closure and not be prepared to service customers when the economy opens for business.How will workers get their jobs back and how will employers increase their labor force? Many businesses have had to furlough or lay-off employees. How those businesses can maintain a relationship with current employees (Paycheck Protection Plan, limited hours, etc.) is critical so once they open their doors, they can meet customer demand. Businesses that expect just a temporary closure should already be looking for staff, even if they don’t know when they will reopen. On the flip side, Marin residents who have lost their job need new opportunities immediately. Fortunately, there are some resources, such as the CareerPoint Marin “Job Leads” and the Onwardca.org website that are serving as “go to” resources during this crisis and remain current. However, MEF is looking at more strategic workforce initiatives, by sector, to enable rapid scaling when the need eventually arises. One idea is an “employee exchange” where businesses that have demand for a specific skill but only on a part-time basis, might link to other employers to “share” an employee’s time by guaranteeing 40 hours of work.What will be the consumer patterns or trends that demand adaptation by businesses? Everyone is trying to envision the “new normal” and I have heard many plausible and creative ideas. The basic need will be assuring safety for customers. As the government attempts to secure our health, what extra measures will businesses be taking? What possible measures might the government impose on certain businesses? These are critical questions now being debated and businesses must have a voice here, less the parameters of operating be developed in a vacuum by public officials (which admittedly need this input from businesses).

The shifting narrative from survival to recovery is the critical focus for MEF today. We envision a collaborative effort, including our public officials, Chambers of Commerce, and businesses themselves. Write to us here at MEF (info@marineconomicforum.org) to share your ideas of how recovery could look or if you have a business and can specify what kind of needs you anticipate, we want to hear from you. There will be more funding and assistance available but understanding how to best deploy that is the critical question we must now all be debating.

Mike Blakeley, CEO
Marin Economic Forum

February 27, 2020

Last week I participated on a panel at the 27^th Sonoma State Economic Outlook Conference, an annual event focused on the North Bay economy. My panel was titled “Future Industries” and included business leaders from the tech, wine, tourism, and food sectors among others. Of the 6 panelists, I was the only one from Marin County, which struck me as odd considering the focus was on the North Bay.

In my presentation I showed the two figures below, in order to explain to the audience what the Marin County economy really looked like. To understand what our future opportunities are, it is important to know the past and current situation. Figure 1 shows our very diverse economy, with over 20 sectors contributing to the $20+ billion gross regional product (GRP) of Marin County. This information generated a lot of interested looks and note-taking from the audience. My major point here was that we don’t have a dominant industry that will be changing over time, nor have we had new sector entrants into the economy that are going to change the nature of our economy in the future. This chart from 2018 looks almost the same as 2011, but that is a good thing from the perspective of maintaining steady economic growth.

I then showed Figure 2, which contains a breakdown of companies by size of employee. Most audience members were not aware that almost 70% of all the businesses in Marin County have 9 employees or fewer. In Sonoma County they have a lot of large companies, like my fellow panelist from Keysight Technologies, which has several hundred in Sonoma alone.

At the end of the panel discussion several audience members confirmed they did not have knowledge of the size and diversity of the Marin economy, citing that oft-mentioned characterization of Marin as a “bedroom community.”

I had a similar experience last November when I attended the California Economic Summit in Fresno, a gathering of business, government, non-profit, and academic leaders, designed to create a “Roadmap to Prosperity” of policy recommendations for the State. I participated in a breakout session for the Bay Area and interacted with several other economic development leaders, many of whom knew about Marin County but nothing of its economy. This became obvious as our group strategized on future initiatives on regional economic development and the conversation was dominated by building housing and transportation near job centers – “why would anything be developed in Marin?” they asked.

This lack of awareness about the Marin County economy by our Bay Area peers may be known and accepted to some of our residents and public officials, but in today’s hypercompetitive Bay Area economy, we cannot be an afterthought. We have a Fortune 500 company that started and remains here and we have some of the most innovative and creative companies with global reputations (BioMarin, Glassdoor). Marin County is also home to several “fast-growing” companies that might go on to be global brands themselves. Venture capital is organizing here, and our education sector is forging stronger linkages to local businesses. It could be that we are not great at marketing ourselves.

So, “yes” Bay Area, Marin County has a business sector with proven capabilities and sustained growth, and we will continue to play a role in the region’s economic dynamism.

The Phase 1 report of the Marin County Business Retention & Expansion project is now available online! Please click here to access the report on our website.

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For your information, the Bay Area Council has provided this very useful information regarding the coronavirus. 

As updates surrounding the coronavirus, officially named COVID-19, are made public, the Bay Area Council remains committed to the health and wellbeing of our members and their employees. We have compiled information and resources from our member companies in the healthcare industry, as well as from state and federal government agencies, that you may consider disseminating and implementing as you deem appropriate. For the latest updates, please refer to the U.S. CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention).

What is the current health threat in the U.S.?
According to the California Department of Public Health, while imported cases of COVID-19 have been detected in the U.S., there is no evidence of sustained person-to-person transmissions of the virus. On January 31, Health and Human Services Secretary Alex M. Azar II declared a public health emergency in the U.S. to aid the nation’s healthcare community in responding to the virus. While the CDC maintains that the potential public health threat posed by COVID-19 is high, the immediate health risk for the general public in the U.S. is considered low at this time.

What are the symptoms and who is at a higher risk? 
Symptoms include cough, sore throat, high temperature, and feeling tired and achy, which are symptoms similar to the flu. According to Bay Area Council member company Sutter Health, “the flu poses a much greater public health risk in the United States at this time.”

People with an increased risk of infection include people with underlying health issues, older adults and healthcare workers caring for patients with COVID-19.

How can individuals protect themselves and others?
Bay Area Council member company Kaiser Permanente recommends the following practices:

• Wash your hands often with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.
• Avoid touching your eyes, nose, or mouth with unwashed hands.
• Avoid close contact with people who are sick.
• Stay home if you are sick, except to get medical care.
• Cover your mouth and nose when you cough or sneeze.
• Clean and disinfect objects and surfaces you touch.

How can businesses and employers respond and prepare? 
The CDC warns that as COVID-19 is likely to spread, workplaces and other places for mass gatherings may experience absenteeism. Local transportation, healthcare and emergency systems may also be affected. Employers are encouraged to to stay updated on the latest developments and follow certain strategies now:

• Prevent stigma and discrimination in the workplace by not making determinations of risk based on race or country of origin, and maintain confidentiality of people with confirmed infections.
• Actively encourage sick employees to stay home and to practice respiratory etiquette and hand hygiene. Anyone with signs of fever, a temperature of 100.4° or greater, or other symptoms for more than 24 hours should not come in to work.
• Separate employees who arrive to work with acute respiratory illness symptoms from other employees and send them home immediately.
• Perform routine environmental cleaning.
• Advise employees to take certain steps before or during travel. The CDC provides the latest guidance and recommendations for each country. Ensure that your employees are aware of any policy for obtaining medical care outside of the U.S.
• Create a plan to implement in case of increased workplace absenteeism as well as an Infectious Disease Outbreak Response Plan.

For the full list of employer strategies, as well as for recommendations for how to create an Infectious Disease Outbreak Response plan, visit the CDC’s Interim Guidance for Businesses and Employers to Plan and Respond to Coronavirus Disease 2019.

Further Resources
California Department of Public Health nCoV2019 FAQ: https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/DCDC/Pages/Immunization/nCOV2019.aspx

CDC Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Situation Summary:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/summary.html

Blue Shield of California’s Coronavirus: What You Need to Know:
https://news.blueshieldca.com/2020/01/28/coronavirus-faq

Sutter Health’s 2019 Novel Coronavirus FAQ:
https://www.sutterhealth.org/smf/for-patients/health-alerts/2019-novel-coronavirus

Kaiser Permanente’s 2019 Novel Coronavirus / COVID-19 Alert:
https://healthy.kaiserpermanente.org/northern-california/alerts/p1/2019-novel-coronavirus-feb-2020

Interim Guidance for Businesses and Employers to Plan and Respond to Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), February 2020:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/specific-groups/guidance-business-response.html

Mike Blakeley, CEO
Marin Economic Forum

November 14, 2019

 On November 7-8, I attended the California Economic Summit, a 2-day conference of public, private, and civic leaders in California. The event was hosted by California Forward with a purpose of developing key policy positions and action plans that will lead to sustainable economic development across the whole of California. This year, the event took place in Fresno, which was significant given the focus of Governor Gavin Newsom on inland California regions, which haven’t shared in the economic success of the State, especially since the Great Recession. Many senior State and local elected officials were in attendance, including newly appointed Chief Service Officer Josh Fryday (formerly on the Novato City Council) and Marin County Supervisors Damon Connelly and Dennis Rodoni. 

During the Summit, participants discussed how to approach California’s biggest problems through a set of concurrent sessions on “Housing, Mobility, and Connectivity”, “Lifelong Learning”, “Prosperous Economies, Thriving Workers”, and “Ecosystem Vitality and Working Landscapes.” As you might imagine, engaging on these issues with hundreds of peers yielded rich conversations and debate. At the end of all of it, three things stood out to me for Marin as these issues are addressed:

The State is encouraging regional collaboration in economic development. In September 2018, then Governor Jerry Brown vetoed AB 2596, which would have required a statewide economic development strategy. Fast forward to May 2019 and current Governor Gavin Newsom introduces the “Regions Rise Together” initiative, prioritizing regional solutions and strategies for more inclusive economic growth in the State. The Summit directly supported that initiative by emphasizing regional solutions and sharing examples of regional success stories. What does this mean for Marin? 

First, Marin should ensure participation in regional dialogues, both in the public and private sector channels. Although our local government officials do engage regionally through entities like the Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) and the Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC), among others, businesses, as well as some of our non-profits on the front lines of difficult socio-economic issues, also need to engage regionally.

Mike Blakeley, CEO
Marin Economic Forum

October 22, 2019

If you are anything like me, you have enough skill to do a simple job around the house thanks to lessons from mom and dad or that summer job where had to run a machine. You may have recently ventured into the world of do-it-yourself YouTube videos, where a study shows that 51% of users find the site useful for “figuring out how to do things they haven’t done before.” However, for any serious electrical, plumbing or auto repair, you probably turn to a professional. Problem is, here in Marin people with critical trade skills are diminishing. I’ll get to why this is happening but first it’s useful to consider the situation at the national level.

A 2018 news article in the Washington Post succinctly summed up the problem: “An unprecedented skilled labor shortage exists from a combination of the Great Recession’s record levels of unemployment, industry veterans leaving the workforce and the fact that many high school graduates are not interested in blue-collar jobs.” The same article cited an important finding by Manpower Group:

“Skilled trades (electricians, carpenters, welders, bricklayers, plasterers, plumbers, masons and more) have maintained the No. 1 position in vacancies from 2010 to the present.”

That is almost 10 straight years of leading the nation in vacancies.

The picture is just as grim for manufacturing jobs-which include some of the same certifiable skills demanded in the trades. According to a study by the National Association of Manufacturers and Deloitte Consulting, there are over 2 million vacant new jobs in the manufacturing sector expected by 2028. Combined with over 2 million retiring workers from the sector in that timeframe, they estimate the US economy could lose $2.5 trillion in gross domestic product (GDP).

The issue is not the result of trades jobs not compensating well. The Washington Post article included data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) which showed the median annual wage (the wage at which half of the people make more, half make less) for an electrician is $52,720 with the top 10 percent making $90,420 (National average). These wage levels are higher relative to many other non-degree occupations and keep in mind that is nationally-not in high cost of living areas like the Bay Area. Using the First Quarter 2019 State of California Occupational Employment Statistics and Wages (OES) program, we found that in Marin County the mean average annual wage for occupations in the “construction and extraction industries” was $68,807, highest among all other non-degree occupations. Further, the same database showed wages for “managers” in construction and extraction industries and in the “transportation, storage and distribution” categories surpassed $125,000 demonstrating the longer term earning potential for individuals that can advance in those sectors. 

Labor markets are highly regional but the situation in Marin County mirrors that of the national level in terms of high demand. Evidence collected by the Marin Economic Forum through interviews with companies in the electrical, plumbing, agriculture and construction sectors confirm their greatest concern is the lack of a pipeline of workers for the future. Those companies cite several reasons for this:

• Industry veterans are retiring without opportunities for succession thus diminishing the volume of local tradespeople. Many electricians and plumbers are one-person operations, perhaps with a small crew, but without good options for someone to take over the business;
• Workers with skills and experience have many opportunities for employment, including with public agencies that offer good job security;
• Many tradespeople that currently serve the Marin market do not actually live in Marin thus may choose to accept projects or even employment closer to their actual residence;
• Senior tradespersons observe a stigma about labor-based jobs and a lack of awareness of the actual wages among high school students. This information was also conveyed in a report by the North Bay Business Journal with leaders in the North Bay construction industry ; and
• Other jobs that require knowledge of the trades, such as hardware equipment sales or building inspectors are also experiencing high vacancies creating even more competition for workers.

The increasing gap between available tradespeople and demand from Marin residents will surely rise leading to higher costs and longer timelines and that in itself is an economic concern. However, the fact that demand for skilled tradespeople will remain strong for the next decade is a powerful opportunity for young people that may prefer a career pathway that doesn’t include a four-year degree. 

To seize this opportunity will require some changing of hearts and minds, with respect to what trades jobs look like today (hint: they are sophisticated and utilize technology) and what kind of compensation a career in the trades can provide. It should also be noted that trades jobs require continued learning.

One place to start is to make data on wages in the trades, including long term income projections, more accessible to high school students and their parents. Second, greater exposure to what trades jobs look like today, via internships and partnerships with industry, can allow young people to make informed decisions about their post-high school opportunities. 

Finally, programs like “School to Career” and Regional Occupational Programs and Career Technical Education (CTE) offered through local high schools and the College of Marin, and private initiatives like the North Bay Construction Corps are great examples of the infrastructure that already exists to enable youth to pursue work in the trades.

Realizing the shortage of tradespeople is an immediate career opportunity for good paying jobs for Marin youth is important. Helping them get to those careers should they choose is our challenge. 

Mike Blakeley, CEO
Marin Economic Forum

September 3, 2019

It’s no secret the Bay Area is the place to launch your dream business – entrepreneurs flock here like actors to Hollywood. According to crunchbase.com there are 489 publicly traded companies in the San Francisco Bay Area including Marin’s own Autodesk. But it’s not limited to the technology sector; healthcare and food are also big players in this region. So, what is it that breeds these types of successful businesses? It’s not the nice weather, free-spirited attitudes or even innovation, it’s something called an “entrepreneurial ecosystem” and strengthening the one we have in Marin can be a big benefit to our residents.

An entrepreneurial ecosystem describes a set of conditions, some existing, some created, to bring people together and foster economic prosperity and wealth creation. The graphic below identifies the standard elements of any entrepreneurial ecosystem.

Although the figure is composed of 9 elements, I would argue 4 of them are most significant: funding & finance, support systems/mentors, culture, and human capital & workforce. The strong presence of these four elements have ensured the Bay Area is a leading destination for entrepreneurs. In other regions, elements like “government policy” may have stronger influence on success.

San Francisco and Silicon Valley are responsible for a staggering 40% of all U.S. venture capital funding according to the 2018 PricewaterhouseCoopers/CB Insights MoneyTree report. If you need money to start your company, you come here. As far as human capital, the early technology companies with links to Stanford created a pool of technically skilled entrepreneurs that went on to create their own companies. Fast forward to today and you not only have a fully developed pipeline of high-skilled workers but a culture of entrepreneurship that is part of the Bay Area DNA. Finally, the support systems are excellent; regional incubators and accelerators have world class services that can carry entrepreneurs’ dreams to reality and many successful entrepreneurs have joined the investor and mentoring ranks.

So, how does Marin’s entrepreneurial ecosystem look? Applying a filter of ecosystem elements discussed above, here are some of our findings: 

Marin doesn’t have recognized angel investor networks like other counties in the region do (funding piece) but we do have successful investors among our residents as well as entrepreneurs that understand the necessity of start-up capital;  

We have a workforce of high-skilled residents that work in sectors like media, technology and healthcare who may desire to start or have started companies. Coincidentally these sectors rank in the top-5 for receiving venture capital;

We have coworking spaces like WeWork, VenturePad and The Hivery, but would benefit from a stronger presence of incubators and mentoring networks;

We have two higher-ed institutions (Dominican University and the College of Marin) that could serve as a talent pipeline with strategic partnerships to the business community;

We have elected officials that understand the importance of economic vitality and the need for good jobs for Marin residents; and

We do have a start-up culture in Marin, including known stars like Glassdoor and BioMarin but with fast growing companies like Waggle, Inc., AdvisoryCloud and Sorry Robots LLC. These firms were founded in Marin but are now serving global markets.

These factors confirm the foundations of an entrepreneurial ecosystem already exist in Marin but relative to other regions it could be considered “underappreciated.” Building up the ecosystem could help residents launch companies, strengthen future workforce pipelines for middle and high skill jobs and attract innovative companies with good jobs. How we build it and define what we want it to look like is a conversation we need to start.

Mike Blakeley, CEO
Marin Economic Forum

July 31, 2019

Last month one of my favorite local bike shops closed its doors. I had noticed changes in the store over its lifetime, from selling bikes to focusing on more profitable merchandise and repairs, but even that wasn’t enough to save the business. Marin residents are watching this story repeat itself with some other beloved merchants. On the flipside, some successful companies like Glassdoor and Straus Creamery, are moving out of Marin because their expansion demands, like talent or space, cannot be satisfied by remaining here. All of this is troubling for a lot of good reasons:

Research shows that over 80% of any U.S. region’s economic growth comes from local businesses – not by attracting new ones. Yet if our local businesses grow – and then leave – there needs to be something to replace them to continue the pipeline of jobs, tax revenues and corporate philanthropy that Marinites depend on;

To that extent, the current environment for starting a business in Marin is not great. Marin has just a few “incubator” spaces where entrepreneurs can access assistance they need to grow their companies and as technology sector experts have noted, we lack the critical mass of venture capital funding that would allow successful start-ups to scale;

The recent “National Citizens Survey” commissioned by the Marin County Board of Supervisors revealed that 98% of Marin resident respondents (over 3,000) purchase goods or services from a business located in Marin County. If those goods and services are not offered because we don’t have those businesses, then residents suffer; and

A significant proportion of our residents leave Marin each day to work in places where there is a higher volume of high-skill jobs (with high salaries); the resulting commute traffic is not only stressing our infrastructure but stressing those individuals who do it every day.

These issues, and the many others I did not share for the sake of brevity, are things that can be addressed and will be addressed through the “Marin County Business Retention & Expansion” project implemented by MEF and community partners. In listening to over 50 businesses (and another 100+ are lined up for focus groups and interviews), we are finding that businesses have solutions but not the time, energy or critical mass of colleagues to take on these issues. For example:

Retailers know they need more foot traffic but that will only occur if cities and towns are on board promoting more visitors (read by some as “traffic”) and have good marketing strategies. Retailers also feel the squeeze of the “Amazon effect” but don’t know best practices to compete.

Marin has never had a strong business attraction spirit but the current resident landscape (more working professionals and higher education attainment relative to the past) as well as the desire of companies to provide quality of life for their employees has resulted in more companies considering Marin as a location. How are we ensuring those kinds of companies can learn about locating in Marin?

These are just two examples of the interest and desires of local businesses that are being communicated through the project. Residents (and policymakers) should be excited that MEF, along with 17 community partners like Chambers of Commerce and other business groups, will use this input to drive evidence-based solutions and programs that can lead to a more vibrant local business community. Those solutions will allow our local businesses to survive and thrive-today and tomorrow.

Mike Blakeley, CEO
Marin Economic Forum

July 3, 2019

 In May of this year Marin County’s unemployment rate dipped below 2% (1.9%) for the first time in 20 years (also 1.9% in May 1999). If you are an elected official or policymaker the low figure should please you, signaling that almost all your citizens that want a job have a job. Business owners are on the opposite end, fretting over a tight labor market that could mean a raise in wages, prices and potentially lower profits. There is a third category of people that are impacted: residents that rely on local goods and services. Have you noticed an increase in the cost of things lately or has the service at your favorite eatery slumped because they don’t have enough staff?

The Marin Economic Forum has been conducting a “business retention and expansion” (“BRE”) project in Marin County to measure the health of our local businesses. We have already talked with over 40 businesses and without a doubt the #1 issue for all of them is staffing. This is not news for most of you but here is what is newsworthy: the labor shortage bears all the characteristics of another issue we refer to as a “crisis,” housing. Labor, like housing, is a supply and demand issue. Labor, like housing, is tight because there is not enough supply of workers. But here is why I also consider the labor shortage a crisis: Unlike housing, our labor supply is diminishing.

Marin County imports a huge percentage of its workforce (63%) and our population demographics show less than 10% of our residents are aged 18-34. Meanwhile the proportion of older adults, those who will leave the workforce, is growing at an increasing rate. We only have one university and one community college here that graduates an average of 1000 students a year; that is less than 1% of our labor force even if all those graduates got jobs in Marin.

Of concern is that we know the current labor shortage is due in part to lack of housing so one crisis is exacerbating another. Worse, unlike housing, where at least a half-dozen, well-informed advocacy groups are trying to address the issue, there are no leading advocates to address our “labor crisis.” To be fair, the construction industry has acted with new training programs and the Marin County Office of Education is working at the high school level to expedite students into careers should they choose that path. But residents should be aware that we are approaching structural issues with our labor force, including lack of talent and programs to secure a labor pipeline.

Compare Marin with other regions around the country also facing labor and housing shortages and you see more aggressive action: the hospitality sector in Seattle is investing serious money in “upskilling” employees so employers can do more with less, Colorado Springs is filling jobs in manufacturing, IT and child development by providing accelerated training to underemployed and undereducated people in the community, and in Wisconsin, where the population has been stagnant and getting older, the State has invested over $1 million in a marketing campaign to attract millennials from urban centers like Chicago, selling a high quality of outdoor life. These regions were driven to address their labor shortages and did so. What are we doing in Marin? Not enough

Mike Blakeley, CEO
Marin Economic Forum

May 16, 2019

In the field of economics there are a lot of funny terms. Remember just a short while ago we were all talking about “quantitative easing?” There is another funny term, “Location Quotient” or “LQ” that I think Marin residents should know about.

LQ is basically a way to compare a region’s economy to the nation by measuring the concentration of things like occupations, industry presence or even demographics. LQ is measured with a number (a ratio actually) against the benchmark of “1” for the national average. An LQ measurement above 1 suggests a higher concentration of something, say architects, compared to other regions. The assumption is that an LQ measure greater than 1 means that occupation, or industry has a relatively more significant role in a region.  Take the city of Detroit; the automobile manufacturing industry has a LQ over 10 (!) demonstrating its huge importance to that city’s economy and its residents relative to other places in the U.S.

The table below shows the LQ for ‘occupations’ in Marin. This means that for the sectors presented, there is either a high concentration or low concentration of those jobs in Marin compared to other regions. I chose “occupations” because it is important to understand the jobs we have here in Marin compared to the nation.

Here are some of the interesting stories about the LQ measurements above and some related data:

1. The highest LQ score goes to occupations in the field of Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports and Media. That would please most residents. However, that occupation also has one of the lowest median hourly wages at $21.81-just above the level of a “livable wage” for Marin.
2. The lowest LQ score, excluding the military, is in Farming, Fishing and Forestry which also has the second to lowest median hourly income at $14.71. Residents should be concerned that there are so few occupations in the ag sector, and they pay so low; the locally grown produce, meats and dairy we have come to love is at risk in the near future.
3. While “Personal Care and Service” has a strong LQ (1.64) and has experienced the most job growth of any of the sectors (+21% in 5 years), it has the second to worst median hourly income ($13.36), far below the “livable wage” number.
4. Two sectors that one would assume to have a high concentration in the tech-rich Bay Area are “Computer and Mathematical” and “Healthcare Practitioners and Technical”. However, both have LQ’s less than 1 in Marin. Unfortunately, these are also two occupations that are among the highest median hourly wages (>$42/hour). That suggests Marin is performing lower than the nation in terms of the concentration of these jobs. To me that means we have unfulfilled potential to increase the number of companies and jobs in those high paying sectors.

Overall, we can observe 11 sectors that have LQ’s greater than 1 but only 6 of them pay higher than a “livable wage” by Marin standards. So as far as occupation LQ’s telling a story about the uniqueness of the Marin economy, one might say we have a higher concentration of lower paying jobs and that occupations in two of the best paying sectors have a lower relative concentration in Marin than the national average. That should be perceived as a problem; the occupations we have aren’t necessarily the occupations we need given the high cost of living and our assets, which includes a highly educated population. Strictly going by occupation LQ, Marin has work to do.

Mike Blakeley, CEO
Marin Economic Forum

April 24, 2019

Here at MEF we are always analyzing data to understand our local economy. Recently I reviewed datasets on residential and commercial real estate vacancies in Marin. The trends and what they suggest are concerning for our economy.

According to multiple Marin commercial real estate reports, office, retail and industrial vacancies are increasing. San Rafael and Novato have well over 1 million square feet (sq. ft.) vacant space in all categories combined and both cities experienced a net increase of availability for 2018. While that is not a lot of vacant space, the fact that vacancies have gone up when there has not been any significant commercial developments for the last decade suggests companies may be leaving those cities (and possibly leaving Marin) or downsizing. A well-known leasing agent also confirmed lack of demand with few property showings and noted “it doesn’t seem like we have the startup, job creation, or the person tired of commuting to the City that wants to open up an office here.”

That is a bad trend for Marin’s economy and for residents that depend on local businesses for goods or public services funded by the taxes those businesses pay. From a local resident employment perspective, it is even worse. If you consider a ratio of 200 sq. ft./office worker, there is a lost opportunity for local jobs that would reduce residents need to commute out of Marin and pump extra cash into the local economy.  So, any way you look at it the increasing vacancy rate of commercial office space is hurting our local economy.

On the residential side we are seeing the opposite; vacancies continue to go down.  According to MarinApartments.com, the apartment vacancy rate in the 4th quarter of 2018 was 3.2%, almost a full point lower than the same period in 2017 (4.1%).  A decline in vacancy rates suggests that rents are likely to continue rising. According to CoStar Group, Marin’s average apartment rents at $2,463 per month. Since landlords typically require an income of 4X rent, a family would need an income of $100,000 to secure adequate housing. According to the 2017 Census, only 52% of Marin households had incomes of $100,000 or more confirming many Marin residents cannot afford to pay the average rent of an apartment.

You don’t have to be a data geek like me to understand how the two opposing trends pose deeper threats to our economy. Residents will feel the impact of local businesses closing or diminished job openings, especially of higher wage service jobs, because companies can’t suitably locate here. Meanwhile, as housing costs continue to increase there is less disposable income that goes towards eating out, shopping and buying new vehicles-all major contributors to Marin’s economy. I see this as a concern, and I hope you do too.

Mike Blakeley, CEO
Marin Economic Forum

March 19, 2019

Recently the Marin County Board of Supervisors accepted survey results produced through a “National Citizens Survey” (“the Survey”). The Survey is designed to capture a snapshot of a community’s opinions on a common set of themes such as “governance” (like how our public sector functions) and characteristics like “safety” and the “economy.” There are over 120 questions including qualitative and open-ended questions. Over 3,700 responses were received through both written and electronic form. The Survey also benchmark’s responses against other like communities (there were between 25-40).

As a self-proclaimed “data-geek” I enjoyed pouring over the 30-plus pages of results. Some of the notable takeaways were on how well Marin residents scored safety, wellness and the environment. As a parent I loved the extremely high positive response on “Marin County as a place to raise children.” One thing I would say about the Survey is it covers a huge range of topics, yet I was disappointed to see the discussion of results focus on housing. To be clear, lack of affordable (and workforce) housing IS a big issue in Marin and MEF has identified the associated negative affects frequently over the past few years. But the Survey responses are useful for understanding other issues that also remain a priority for our residents. For example, when asked to rank the 5 priority areas in the FY 2018-2020 Board of Supervisors budget, the top response by far was “investing in County infrastructure” (91%) followed by “improving disaster preparedness” (84%). “Preserving affordable housing” ranked a distant 3^rd. Residents think money should be invested in more than just housing.

Drilling down into issues that characterize our economy, there were several interesting responses (and some of them disappointing):

1. Among the many positive datapoints in the “Economy” section was that 98% of respondents purchase goods or services from a business located in Marin County. This figure was higher relative to other communities surveyed and a strong sign of resident’s use of local businesses. The MEF takeaway: residents overwhelmingly use and need local businesses.
2. Unfortunately, some of the lowest scores of the Survey were also found in the economy category: Only 28% of respondents said the “Economy will have positive impact on income.” Meanwhile just 37% noted “positive” for “employment opportunities” and only 69% considered “Marin County as a place to work” as positive, which placed Marin in the lower half benchmarked against 39 other communities. The MEF takeaway: although our economy is generally considered strong with low employment and an affluent population, there are some troubling sentiments from residents for Marin County as a place to work.
3. Just under 50% of respondents noted “economic development” as positive. Anyone who follows the Marin economy would probably not be surprised to see a tepid response in this category. However, that by no means makes it acceptable. The MEF takeaway: Competition for our local businesses is only getting worse not better. Our County’s workforce is getting older not younger. Inequality in Marin is growing. Economic development plays a role in all these issues, so we need to be very good at it for our future.

The Survey supports the need to address two MEF focus areas: business retention & expansion efforts will ensure our local businesses can stay competitive and continue to serve our residents, and workforce development can help employers and employees alike derive more benefit from our economy.

I invite all readers to review the results and learn what their fellow residents are saying about Marin’s priorities: https://www.marincounty.org/depts/ad/divisions/management-and-budget/resident-survey

-Mike

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January 10, 2019

As we all flip the calendar to 2019 MEF is excited about conducting a range of activities around two critical issues affecting Marin County’s economy: workforce development and business retention & expansion. Let me explain why we are focusing on these areas:

The data shows that 60-80% of a region’s economic growth results from existing businesses, not attraction of new businesses. This is important because Marin’s economy does not rely on, or encourage, major manufacturing or other industries that are characterized by large-scale companies (1000 employees or more). In fact, we have an inverse situation here in Marin County; over 85% of our businesses are 10 people or fewer. For smaller employers, expanding a business carries risk but that risk can be mitigated with an efficient and responsive business environment. So MEF is going to work on a County-wide level with public and private sector stakeholders to address issues that affect businesses ability to compete and sustain.

Part of the ability to compete is having a secure workforce. Employers in Marin are facing difficulty in retaining and attracting employees. Fortunately, there are a number of good organizations in Marin providing skills training and tools to link job seekers with employers to help ease this challenge. However, MEF is thinking about Marin’s future workforce-not only our younger job seekers but also the needs (and emerging needs) of our employers in important industries like biotech, healthcare and the creative industries to name just a few. Marin (and the Bay Area) is the envy of a lot of regions for having these industries locate here but if we don’t ensure companies have a talent pipeline or a good business environment we could just as easily lose them to other regions. MEF has an important role to play here by helping to understand the future trends of these industries and what that means from a workforce perspective-including linking industry demand back to job seekers, training entities and the education sector.

To kick things off in 2019 we are hosting “Forecasting the Future: Workforce Challenges and the Future of Work” on January 29^th in association with the San Rafael Chamber of Commerce. This important event will feature discussions on the challenges employers face with hiring and keeping employees as well as a preview of Marin’s economy in the year ahead. You can register for this event below.

So MEF is excited about what’s ahead in 2019 because we know our work in these areas will have value to all of Marin’s residents while keeping our economy in focus. Make sure to be on the lookout for more public events and important studies that represent our effort to secure Marin’s economic future-in 2019 and beyond!

-Mike Blakeley, CEO, Marin Economic Forum

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December 4, 2018

On Thursday November 29 I had the chance to attend my first event since joining MEF, the “North Bay Business Journal 2018 CEO Roundtable” in Santa Rosa. The event featured a panel of CEO’s from the North Bay’s most recognizable companies: Marin’s Ghilotti Bros., Inc and Hospice by the Bay, as well as Clover Sonoma, Jackson Family Wines, Traditional Medicinals, Nelson Companies (which has an office here in Marin) and Torn Ranch (which had their first storefront in San Rafael). The excellent discussion on various business topics provided me three big takeaways to share:

1.    A lot of North Bay businesses exist here because of a strong connection to the land
Some of the most successful companies in Marin and beyond are multigenerational family owned businesses. These companies aren’t still here today because the factors of production suggest they will be most competitive by manufacturing here; they rely on inputs which are unique to Marin and the Bay Area and have a deep connection to Marin. However, these companies need to be supported if they are going to stay in the North Bay and grow. That is why the work of the MEF to ensure a competitive Marin economy so important to our community; we need and want those companies to stay here and flourish.

2.    The industries that exist here in the North Bay are innovative and poised to lead in the future
If you survey the sectors of Marin’s economy you will find the sectors of the future: biotech, cleantech, non-profits, healthcare and even agriculture. We are fortunate that these sectors exist, but we need to ensure they stay here and grow and to do so we need a sound public-private dialogue between elected officials and companies in these sectors.

3.    All 7 CEO’s said their future success depends on making the business environment friendlier
For those of you who own or have owned a business in Marin I bet you would say the same thing. We all know that there are regulatory burdens and processes that can make doing business difficult; it could be said of most places. However, we need to be aware and have ways to address those policy issues rather than force companies to deal with them.

As a first event to attend I couldn’t have hoped for a more relevant and rich discussion. The experience confirmed that the MEF can be a critical partner to both private and public sector as it relates to securing a strong economy of the future. What a great start!

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June 19, 2018

Lest readers think this blog space is a rant about some of the not-so-good things in Marin, this week we offer this.

Two Marin cities – San Rafael and Novato, were recently named among the Best Places to Live in the U.S. by Livability.com. The online community research publication ranked San Rafael 26th and Novato 77th among 100 cities across the country. Ann Arbor, Michigan, took the top spot.

 San Rafael was recognized for having an economy strong in education, technology and tourism, as well as an array of cultural, arts, shopping and dining options. The report also highlighted China Camp State Park, Dominican University of California, Kaiser Permanente and attractions such as the California Film Center and Rafael Film Center. 

Novato’s 3,600 acres of open space was highlighted, particularly Stafford Lake Park and 1,558-foot-high Mount Burdell. The city was given high marks for high-achieving Novato Unified School District, as well as having a strong local economy of biotech and small technology companies along with a variety of retail centers. The report also highlighted Novato Community Hospital, Novato Healthcare Center and the city’s Old Town district.

Livability.com ranked nearly 2,300 cities on more than 40 data points measuring economics, housing, amenities, infrastructure, demographics, social and civic capital, education and health care.

Click here to see the top 100 best places to live.

Click here to see the Marin story.

-Robin

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 June 5, 2018

The Marin IJ’s “ Rail Spur Takes Shape” story reveals the so-called “train to nowhere” is about to go somewhere, with work occurring daily at the future Larkspur stop on the south side of Cal Park Tunnel. That stop, of course, is the link to the SMART train in downtown San Rafael and equally important, to the Golden Gate ferry system at the Larkspur Landing ferry terminal. The 2.1 mile extension has a budget of $55.3 million. The Metropolitan Transportation Commission has provided some of the funds for the extension, while a federal grant and local sales tax dollars are covering the rest of the cost for the extension. 

Here’s the link to the Marin IJ’s story: Marin IJ Article

Two days later, another page 1A story appeared, “Commute in Marin Worst in the Bay Area.” Cringe! We knew it was bad, but the worst?

Overall, Marin residents take 32.3 minutes to get to work, while Bay Area-wide average time is 31.6 minutes, according to the Metropolitan Transportation Commission’s Vital Signs program (http://www.vitalsigns.mtc.ca.gov/), which is designed to give Bay Area residents a snapshot of key transportation, land use, environmental and economic policy trends. Belvedere (40.6 minutes) and San Anselmo (35.5 minutes) had the longest average commutes while San Rafael averaged the shortest commute time (28.4 minutes). It’s worth a look at the story to learn more about Marin residents’ commute patterns. For example, 12.4% of us commute 60-89 minutes to get to work daily.

Here’s the IJ commute article: Marin IJ Article

We’ve said it before and we’ll say it again, creating more affordable housing, developing a local and highly competent workforce, improving our transportation systems and options and addressing inequality are all related, connected and inseparable, in good times and bad. Our mission is to address them individually and holistically so Marin can become a better version of itself. 

-Robin

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May 29, 2018

For the first time in recent memory, a Marin job fair is set for June 7, with more than 70 employers lined up, and 20 more on a wait list. The free event, running 11 a.m. to 2 p.m. at San Rafael’s B Street Community Center, 618 B St., was originally planned as a “boot camp” for the area homeless population, said Andrew Hening, San Rafael’s director of homeless outreach and planning. But the interest from the business community was so overwhelming that organizers decided to open it up for the entire pool of job-seekers.

The response to the job fair hints at how dire Marin’s workforce shortage problem has become. Marin’s unemployment rate has hovered near 3% for over a year which economists consider “underemployment.” So, new strategies like a job fair can help maximize our local workforce potential and provide employers a new hiring source. Job seekers who have been on the sideline for a number of reasons, can be hired, trained and brought into the workforce at entry and mid-level service jobs. Rather than fill jobs with people who live outside of the county, we should tap into our local population as much as we can. Any effort to hire local workers and lessons commute traffic helps maintain our quality of life and is a good thing for our community.

Marin Economic Forum wholeheartedly supports the job fair and encourages all of us to promote this event. Congratulations to the 70+ local employers that have signed up to participate in the June 7 Jobs Fair!

Here’s the story in the Marin IJ: Marin IJ Article

-Robin

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May 22, 2018

Congratulations to Napa and Salt Lake City for coming up with solutions to build affordable housing in their respective communities.

At the Housing Shortage and Inequality event that MEF hosted May 4 at the Embassy Suites in San Rafael, MEF offered a few creative solutions to addressing these challenges, including preparing an Environmental Impact Report (EIR) in a specific market area so communities and developers can have plans and pre-approvals in place to create new neighborhoods.

In Napa, Burbank Housing is building 50 affordable multifamily apartment homes after securing a 9% federal tax credit and funding from the Tipping Point Relief Fund, the Gasser Foundation, Napa Valley Vintners, the Trinchero family and other local donors. Here’s the story: NorthBay Business Journal Coverage

In Salt Lake City, Freddie Mac, the country’s largest backer of apartment loans, will offer low-cost housing loans to real estate owners willing to keep their buildings affordable to middle-class families for years to come. To start, Freddie will back up to $500 million in loans to Bridge Investment Group, a Salt Lake City-based landlord with roughly 30,000 apartments around the country. Here’s that story: Wall Street Journal Coverage

These are the types of initiatives we need to develop in Marin County.

-Robin

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May 15, 2018

A recent Marin IJ story reported that Marin grew more in 2017 (population) than its county neighbors of Sonoma and Napa, attributing much of that growth to last October’s wine country wildfires. The population estimates were provided by the state Department of Finance and showed that Marin County had a net people gain of 624, or 0.2%, compared with net population losses of 0.3% in both Napa and Sonoma counties. Throughout the state, more than 13,200 housing units were lost last year, mostly to fires in northern and southern California, the IJ reported.

At the Housing Shortage and Inequality event that MEF hosted May 4 at the Embassy Suites in San Rafael, our Chief Economist Dr. Rob Eyler presented a slide showing new housing units in Marin from 2011 through 2016, with the 600+ total averaging 112 new housing units per year. Dr. Eyler also showed a slide stating that the average Marin household has 2.3 people in it. With 624 new county residents, just to keep pace with them, much less the pent up demand factor, we would have needed to add 271 new housing units in 2017. It’s more evidence of how we keep sliding backward in terms of matching demand with supply. Here’s the IJ story: Marin IJ Article

-Robin

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May 1, 2018

SMART Gets $21 Million for Windsor Extension

The Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit District has received $21 million in state transportation funds to construct an extension to Windsor, train officials announced last week. The grant, coupled with $40 million proposed in the upcoming ballot issue Regional Measure 3, would allow SMART to complete the Windsor extension.

Voters will have the opportunity to vote in favor of the $40 million in bridge toll increases over a six-year period to pass funding that would complete the 70 mile SMART line from the Sonoma Airport to Windsor and connect with the completed track that runs to San Rafael and ultimately, Larkspur.

Marin Economic Forum strongly endorses this measure and other transportation + infrastructure improvements intended to enhance the mobility of people, goods and services as these are the elements that build the foundation for a strong local and regional economy.

-Robin

Marin IJ Article

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April 24, 2018

Richmond Bridge 3rd Lane Opens

Marin Economic Forum (MEF) is celebrating a significant transportation improvement. Last Friday, April 20, Caltrans opened the long-awaited third eastbound lane on the San-Rafael-Richmond Bridge. The third-lane is providing much-needed, instant relief to thousands of working commuters leaving work in the afternoons and evenings and is open from 2 pm to 7 pm weekdays. Highly functioning infrastructure is essential to talent attraction and worker productivity some of the issues we have been concerned about at MEF.

This multi-year, $53 million project was managed by Caltrans, Metropolitan Transportation Commission’s Bay Area Toll Authority (BATA), and in partnership with the Contra Costa Transportation Authority (CCTA) and the Transportation Authority of Marin (TAM). The lane is regulated by electronic signs and commuters are advised to use the third lane only when green arrows indicate it is open. A red “X” indicates when the lane is closed and traffic violators will face a $237 ticket plus a point on their driving records.

MEF Board member and Marin County Supervisor Damon Connolly provided key leadership in supporting this transportation improvement.

-Robin

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March 27, 2018

Robin Sternberg’s Attends CALED’s 38th Annual Training Conference

Last week Marin Economic Forum’s Chief Executive Robin Sternberg attended the 38^th Annual Training Conference hosted by the California Associate for Local Economic Development (CALED). The event was held in Monterey with approximately 400 economic development professionals from nearly 100 communities in California. Robin was the only economic development representative from Marin. CALED’s mission is dedicated to advancing its members’ ability to achieve excellence in delivering economic development services to their communities and business clients. The association consists of public and private organizations that focus on the business of creating and retaining jobs.

CALED’s mission is dedicated to advancing its members’ ability to achieve excellence in delivering economic development services to their communities and business clients. The association consists of public and private organizations that focus on the business of creating and retaining jobs.

The sessions and speakers covered a lot of ground on things that matter to communities throughout California, including legislative overviews of SB 375 and SB 1, infrastructure and transportation issues (autonomous vehicles and congestion planning) disruptions in the retail economy and how that affects local retail tax revenues, and much more. One of the highlights was the Thursday breakout session, the Changing Face of Economic Development: Land Uses, Sustainability, and Housing. Others that were relevant to the North Bay economy included Business Attraction Tools, Employee Ownership: Preserving California’s Small Businesses & Saving Jobs as well as the session on Tourism Improvement Districts. The luncheon session on cannabis and its potential for revenue generation for vital infrastructure capitalization was as interesting as one might expect and listened to attentively by an audience that has at least one thing in common with each other – the constant need to develop new funding.

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March 14, 2018

Housing Shortage and Inequity

Today Marin Economic Forum had the opportunity to present Housing Shortage and Inequality data to the Board of Supervisors. The lack of supply versus the demand for housing in Marin is reaching a tipping point that is genuinely threatening our economy. In addition to social consequences, housing inequity profoundly limits the potential of people who live among us as well as the broader economy. A recent study of California counties found that Marin County is one of the state’s counties with the highest levels of economic inequality.

Marin Economic Forum is conducting research and analysis on the economic impacts and potential strategies for addressing these issues and improving the quality of our living standards in Marin by effecting change. MEF Chief Economist Dr. Rob Eyler and Student/Consultant Jesus Guzman (from Berkeley’s Goldman School of Public Policy) are leading our organization on this vitally important project. The aim of the research project is to measure the cost of the housing shortage and determine who is paying the price for these conditions. Further, the study will analyze lost consumer spending, the cost to employers and the contributions to inequity these factors are making. We plan to make a preliminary presentation to the community at an event this spring to further explore and discuss these topics. Please stay tuned.

-Robin

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February 27, 2018

Richmond Bridge Expansion

As transportation officials consider options to expand the Richmond Bridge to mitigate morning commutes coming into Marin and evening commutes leaving the county, the concept of a third lane on the north side of the upper deck coming into Marin has risen to the top – yet only as a section of roadway for pedestrians and bicyclists. In January, however, Marin Supervisor Damon Connolly (full disclosure, Damon is on MEF’s board), said that the third lane should also be used for westbound (inbound) vehicles, especially during morning commute times.

Connolly sits on the Metropolitan Transportation Commission and the Bay Area Toll Authority – the agencies behind the bridge expansion and lane plan. Now under consideration is the idea of using the third lane for cars only during the week but opening that lane up exclusively for bikes and walkers on weekends. Marin Economic Forum endorses this concept, as nearly half of our daily workforce commutes into the county and mostly from the East Bay (using the Richmond-San Rafael Bridge) or from the north (using Highway 37 and Highway 101). The bike lane concept was first discussed in 2013 yet over the course of the last five years and as the economy has boomed, traffic has gotten worse on the bridge. In fact, one study conducted by our transportation authority’s states that traffic has increased 13 percent on the Richmond Bridge since 2013.

-Robin

Link to the full Marin IJ article here: Marin supervisor iffy on bike lane for Richmond bridge

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February 20, 2018

We intend to use this space to highlight news and issues that impact Marin County residents and businesses, particularly in the areas that Marin Economic Forum (MEF) plays an instrumental role in affecting change and making Marin – which is pretty great already, a better place to live, work, grow a business, thrive and raise families. Look for something from us every Tuesday, as we plan to post regular blog items, and we will also periodically publish newsletters and announce when MEF is in the news.

-Robin

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