Rob Eyler, CEO of the Marin Economic Forum and an economics professor at Sonoma State University, said, “If this happens, it’s not going to be an absolute shocker.”
Eyler said as BioMarin continues to grow, “There are going to be suitors that are going to sniff around for potential deals, especially given the size of their workforce, their proximity to the city and niche market in which they play.”
Marin’s economic growth over the next two years will likely outpace growth in the national economy; and the state’s drought isn’t expected to spoil the party, Sonoma State University economics professor Robert Eyler said Thursday.
Eyler, who heads the Marin Economic Forum, shared his 2015 economic forecast with about 50 people who attended the quarterly meeting of the Marin Business Forum at the Drake’s Landing Community Room in Greenbrae.
“California’s economic forecast has still not been adjusted for a drought yet,” Eyler said. “We’re still betting that the drought will be relatively low in its impact this year and potentially into next. We’ll see.”
The North Bay economy is expected to experience continued growth as a diverse mix of industries expand, but the region struggles to attract and retain leading businesses in technology, according to a Sonoma State University economist.
And short of a major geopolitical issue arising, the American economy should continue to grow in 2015 at a rate of about 3 percent in real terms, with similar forecasts for 2016 and 2017, according to Robert Eyler, Ph.D., SSU economics professor and director of the institution’s Center for Regional Economic Analysis. He is set to discuss these metrics at the Sonoma State University Economic Outlook Conference in Santa Rosa on Wednesday.
After years of struggle followed by recovery, nearly every industry in Marin is growing and on course to continue slow, steady expansion for years to come, experts say.
“Marin County was recovering in 2011 and 2012, but it was really in 2013 and this year when you saw the fruits of recovery blossom throughout Marin’s various industries,” said Robert Eyler, head of the Marin Economic Forum.
“In the first few years of recovery, we saw industries connected to tech and biotech doing well, while others languished,” said Eyler, a Sonoma State University professor. In the last two years, housing, retail, manufacturing, personal services and construction have shown growth, he said.
Personal income is projected to grow at an average rate of 2.2 percent between 2014 and 2016; payroll employment shows continued growth; Marin’s taxable sales per capita are the third-highest in the state; and the median home price has hovered around $1 million all year.
Opponents of Novato’s Business Improvement District say they have filed a majority protest that legally compels the city to de-fund the association, and they plan to turn out en masse at Tuesday’s City Council meeting to press their point.
“If the members of the BID don’t want the BID, that certainly is a powerful argument that something is not working correctly in terms of how the BID functions,” said Robert Eyler, head of the Marin Economic Forum and a professor of economics at Sonoma State University.
Should the district be dissolved, “the interesting thing is, how will they fill this need once the BID is gone?” Eyler said.
“If it goes away, it may be more difficult for small players to market themselves. It may make it harder for the city to provide events that will generate foot traffic for downtown and hence more business,” Eyler said.
“If you think about the devastation that could happen if there is a fire, considering how tightly packed homes are in some places, it’s not a shocker that it’s a relatively risky place,” said Robert Eyler, head of the Marin Economic Forum. “Now, what may seem somewhat confounding in all this is how quickly Marin’s housing markets have recovered and how they hold their value.
“So, if there is an earthquake or fire, how quickly would Marin’s housing market recover? There is a lot of wealth in Marin and people are going to rebuild. There are up-front risks but not a lot of long-term risks per se,” Eyler said.
Marin’s economy continues to improve from the economic downturn and life sciences jobs have the potential to grow in the county if educators, elected officials and businesses work together.
This message was the focus of the 11th annual Forecasting the Future Economic Conference hosted Thursday by the San Rafael Chamber of Commerce at the Embassy Suites in San Rafael. About 200 people gathered to discuss local, regional and global trends that impact Marin businesses.
“We’re back in real terms at right about the height before the housing market crashed,” Eyler said. “Through 2017 most of the economic forecasts look pretty good.”
Marin added 2,600 payroll jobs and gained 200 payroll businesses since last year, which is not spectacular growth but still good news, Eyler said.
The Corte Madera Town Council has called a 45-day “time out” to determine whether it needs to change zoning and building rules along Tamal Vista Boulevard.
The temporary moratorium will not affect the construction of the much-maligned apartment complex on the old WinCup property, but it does stall a proposal to tear down the Cinema theater, a local landmark, and build 30 homes on the property.
The furor generated by the construction of the apartment complex, which even the pro-business Marin Economic Forum calls “colossal,” has called into question the town’s building standards.
Neighbors of the San Francisco Theological Seminary in San Anselmo took to the street this week to show their ire: They’re upset because they believe the seminary is not going to pay the town enough for drainage and other improvements as part of a major rebuilding project underway.
Martin has questioned the seminary’s estimate of the cost of the development project. The seminary estimates the cost at $15 million; but Martin believes it is closer to $20 million.
Martin said he found the $20 million estimate in a report that the Marin Economic Forum prepared for HartWest, the seminary’s construction consultant. Martin says projects of this kind are typically assessed 3 to 5 percent of the total construction cost to pay for frontage improvements. By that standard, Martin asserts the seminary should be assessed at least $600,000 to pay for frontage improvements.
The future of Novato-based Fireman’s Fund Insurance Co., Marin’s fifth-largest employer, is in doubt following an announcement that one part of the company is being restructured and an earlier news report that the remainder of the company might be for sale.
Robert Eyler, head of the Marin Economic Forum and a professor at Sonoma State University, said it is difficult to say how the changes at Fireman’s Fund will affect Marin’s economy given the information available at this time.
“On the surface,” Eyler said, “it sounds like they may be reducing their local footprint or moving part of the footprint.”
But Eyler said sale of the personal lines businesses might not be a negative development for Marin if local companies were to acquire the business.
