Marin August unemployment drops to 7 percent
Marin County’s unemployment rate in August dropped below record levels for the first time since the coronavirus pandemic began.
Marin’s unemployment rate was 7% in August, down from 9% in July but still up significantly from 2.4% recorded in August 2019, according to the California Employment Development Department. The total number of employed residents in Marin grew by 1,400 jobs from 121,800 in July to 123,200 in August.
“It’s usually a month where we don’t see much change,” said Jorge Villalobos, a research specialist with the California Employment Development Department.
The record unemployment rate for the month of August in Marin is 8% set in 2009.
The August 2020 rate is the first to drop below record-setting levels in several months. Unemployment in April, May, June and July each topped Marin’s previous record high unemployment of 8.4% set in January 2010. Records began in 1990, with the jobless rate peaking at 11% in April 2020.
The number of jobs located in the county grew by 700 in August, 400 of which were federal government jobs. Federal government job growth also occurred throughout the state, Villalobos said. While the data doesn’t state a specific reason why federal government jobs grew, Villalobos said there is ongoing hiring for 2020 census workers.
The other 300 jobs gained were in the professional and business services sector which includes accounting, engineering, architecture and high tech jobs.
Marin is still down 13,200 jobs, or down 11.2%, compared to August of 2019. About half of the lost jobs are in the leisure, hospitality, transportation and retail sectors, Villalobos said.
While the unemployment has de-escalated since April, Marin Economic Forum chief economist Robert Eyler said the trick is how to get the rate to drop from 7% to 3%.
“And things might get rocky in the fall and winter,” Eyler said.
While new unemployment claims were down across the board in Marin in August, the number of continued claims from previous months was up 1.3%, Eyler said. The supposition is that the state’s previous reversal of reopening plans in Marin “probably created a few more job losses,” Eyler said.
More job losses may be on the way, though Villalobos said it’s difficult to predict given the changes brought on by the coronavirus pandemic. Historically, Marin has lost about 1,000 jobs between August and September spread across various industries.
“But seeing as this month was atypical of what normally happens compared to the prior 10 years, we’ll have to see what the September numbers look like,” Villalobos said.
The Marin Economic Forum has provided data to policymakers, economists and others to gauge the health of the county’s economy. Forum CEO Mike Blakeley said there is a concern about how Marin’s economy will change as a result of the pandemic. The county has experienced an 11.3% job loss, which is higher than the state average of 9.5%, Blakeley said. Workers are also leaving the job market for reasons such as retirement at a higher rate, he said.
Small business revenues in Marin are also down 40.2% from January 2020 compared to the average 16% decline across the state, according to a Harvard University economic tracker.
A concern is that businesses and jobs affected by the pandemic, especially those personal services such as restaurants and retail, may not recover and may shrink Marin’s economy. A focus now, Blakeley said, is ensuring the workforce is trained for the jobs that remain.
“We have to observe from a workforce perspective what opportunities are they going to have going forward,” Blakeley said, “especially for the lower-skilled occupations. Those jobs won’t come back in the volume that we had previously.”
Marin had was the fourth lowest unemployment rate in the state in August, with Modoc and Trinity tied for 2nd lowest rate at 6.8% and Lassen County with the lowest at 6.7%, according to the state data. Statewide unemployment was 11.6%, which is down from the 13.5% rate in July but more than the 3.5% rate in August 2019. The California EDD reports the state has regained about a third of the 2,615,800 non-farm jobs it lost during March and April as a result of the pandemic.
The national unemployment rate was 8.5% in August, down from more than 10% in July, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Unemployment data
Unemployment rates for Marin County in June 2020:
Marin County: 7%
Statewide: 11.6%
Corte Madera: 8.9%
Fairfax: 6.3%
Inverness: 2.9%
Larkspur: 5.5%
Mill Valley: 4.6%
Novato: 7.4%
Point Reyes Station: 0%
San Anselmo: 9.6%
San Rafael: 7.2%
Sausalito: 7.1%
Tamalpais Homestead Valley: 8.9%
Tomales: 0%
Source: California Employment Development Department
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