Marin County economic grow ‘yes,’ but here are the local challenges
The Marin Economic Forum (MEF) expects business activity in 2020 to remain at similar levels as 2019, with the potential risks being lack of an outcome in the existing trade disputes and the uncertainty of a presidential election that could affect firms serving markets outside of Marin County.
Regionally, the Bay Area is expected to continue growth. That means Marin companies competition for labor will persist. Increasing costs for office space in traditional markets might be an opportunity for Marin to secure relocations like we saw in 2019.
As part of the “Marin County Business Retention & Expansion” project MEF has identified the constraints companies will be managing in 2020, as well as the opportunities for growth they will pursue.
Overall the project findings suggest current challenges are likely to persist, especially those like finding workers, which are a direct function of the economy. Other challenges exist due to the unique characteristics of operating a business in Marin. Hiring of new talent across skill levels will continue to be difficult. In addition to the strong regional economy and low unemployment, Marin County has a small labor force and needs to import workers in the competitive Bay Area economy. Low-wage occupations will continue to be the most difficult to fill owing to Marin’s high cost of living and limited, last-mile connectivity from public transit centers.
Power shut-offs and disaster planning are now a part of day-to-day business, requiring that companies allocate more resources towards unplanned events like power shut-offs, road flooding or potentially fires like those that have deeply affected our neighbors to the North. It is no longer acceptable to run a business in Marin County without a business continuity plan.
Retailers will experience added pressure from online sellers. Marin County has many small retailers that will be adopting “experiential retail” strategies to drive foot traffic as well as implement local delivery options or other convenience-driven tactics.
More pressure is coming for cities to accommodate housing demand. Like other Bay Area counties, Marin is trying to manage the housing issue. However, there is some evidence that city planning departments are changing to ease the issuance of residential and commercial permits and new state housing bills will force cities to manage demands for additions to the housing stock.
Despite challenges, there are opportunities to watch in 2020, as informed by our project.
The College of Marin is forging deeper relationships to the business community to align training programs that will satisfy immediate-short term demand for labor. Contract-based training by education could serve many of Marin’s sectors;
There is growing interest on behalf of the county and the private sector to boost the entrepreneurial ecosystem in Marin County.
Marin has great examples of entrepreneurship gone global, including Autodesk, BioMarin and Glassdoor among others.
Many residents already work in sectors that capture high values of venture capital, including health care and technology, yet the infrastructure to start and nurture companies could be strengthened.
MEF and other partners, including chambers of commerce and the education sector, are discussing how to boost such infrastructure.
Marin’s agriculture sector is well known locally for outstanding dairy and livestock, employing cutting-edge techniques to improve sustainability. Many of our ranchers and farmers are expanding sales through ecommerce, farmers markets and the popularity of farm-to-table dining. Dairy prices and labor supply will be two factors that impact the success of the agriculture sector in 2020.
The new Larkspur SMART station will allow for more tourist visits from San Francisco to Marin, including more potential for overnight stays. Tourists in San Francisco can take the SMART train from Golden Gate Ferry and access other Marin cities like San Rafael and Novato.
These are just a few examples of the amazing business potential for Marin County in 2020. More discussion about the Marin economy will take place at the annual Forecasting the Future event hosted by the Marin Economic Forum and taking place on Jan. 29, 2020.
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